President John F. Kennedy stood before Canadian lawmakers and explained the important relationship between the two countries: “Geography has made us neighbors, history has made us friends, and economics has made us partners.” did.
“And out of necessity we became allies,” Kennedy said in a 1961 speech to Congress.
But behind the scenes, the relationship between the charismatic Kennedy and then-Prime Minister John Diefenbaker was fraught.
With the US election looming, it remains unclear who will be at the helm of the bilateral relationship, but Canada cannot escape the geopolitical pull of its closest neighbor.
Although some presidents and prime ministers have friendly relations, their shared geography and history have led to constant clashes between them.
“There’s a long history of presidents and prime ministers hating each other’s guts…and yet the system works,” said Aaron Oettinger, a political science professor at Carleton University.
Experts say the personality inconsistency won’t irreparably harm the relationship, but it could pose a challenge for Canada.
“It’s very difficult to act when there’s open conflict between leaders. It’s more a function of personality than ideology,” said Canada-U.S. relations expert and Future Borders executive director. said Laura Dawson. Union.
This became clear during the first Trump administration, when the former president abandoned the North American Free Trade Agreement. Negotiations for a replacement Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement were marked by public spat between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and former President Donald Trump.
Trump criticized Trudeau as “weak” and “dishonest” after he criticized the president’s 2018 tariffs at the G7 summit in Quebec.
President Trump’s trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, wrote in his book that relations between the United States and Canada are “in the lowest decline since the failed American invasion of Upper Canada during the War of 1812.”
The following year, there was another explosion that appeared to show a video of Trudeau and other NATO leaders talking about the Trump press conference. The former president called the prime minister “two-faced.”
Although relations between the leaders were publicly unstable, behind the scenes the CUSMA negotiations were successful. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland called the deal “a victory for all Canadians,” and experts said it was more moderate than President Trump had initially threatened.
Whoever takes the White House will be responsible for the 2026 review of trade agreements.
Dawson said Trudeau is now a political veteran and is better prepared for a second Trump administration.
“We know that President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau are not a good match,” Dawson said. “But I’m confident that Prime Minister Trudeau will find a way to make it work.”
Most experts say Kamala Harris’ personality would be a better fit with Trudeau. It is reported that the two countries already have a good relationship and share many policy goals. He originally campaigned for a “sunny path,” and she started her campaign with “joy.”
The vice president also spent part of her youth in Canada, but observers say her teenage influence in Montreal is probably overstated.
“It’s clear that Mr. Harris is probably the easiest person to open up to,” Dawson said. “However, there are limits to just being friends.”
Harris campaigned against CUSMA, arguing that it does not do enough to protect American workers, and is expected to follow the Biden administration’s Buy American procurement rules.
Another outcome to consider is the change in Canadian leadership. A general election must be held by October next year, but it could be brought earlier if the Liberal Party loses the confidence of the House of Commons.
The Conservatives have long held a lead in opinion polls amid high inflation, an exodus of Liberal ministers and uncertainty over Trudeau’s political future.
“There will be a significant amount of construction between Canada and the United States over the next two years,” Oettinger said. “And you could have two leaders who have never met each other.”
It is unclear how Conservative Party leader Pierre Poièvre will reconcile with either presidential candidate.
Ivan Ivanov, an assistant professor at the University of Ottawa, said Mr. Poilievre is “a professional communicator.” Public relations and crisis management experts say Conservative leaders can become belligerent, which could harm or foster bilateral relations, but there is a lack of interest among Canadian voters. He said it is working well.
During President Joe Biden’s state visit to Canada last year, he met with Poièvre to discuss Canada’s exemption from Buy America rules, national defense interests and other issues. A photo shared by Poièvre on social media shows the leaders shaking hands.
But Oettinger said he believes “we don’t have a lot of information about how he personally interacts with other leaders on the international stage.”
“He’s a total cipher.”
Mr. Poilievre’s promise contains several insights. He promised to impose tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles that would match U.S. tariffs, weeks before the Liberal government takes action this summer, and promised to back Americans on the long-standing dispute over softwood lumber. .
Poilievre is also known for using slogans in the Republican lexicon. For example, Poièvre said he intended to “replace woke culture with warrior culture” within the military and that “biological males” should have no place in women’s sports or in locker rooms. Both points were included in multiple speeches at the recent Republican National Convention.
But Dawson said that doesn’t mean he’s a good fit for Trump’s presidency.
“We might think Mr. Poièvre and Mr. Trump are a better pairing because he’s a better ideological fit,” Dawson said.
“But we know that Mr. Trump is not at all a traditional Republican.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
