As the U.S. election approaches, CTVNews.ca will examine the Canada-U.S. relationship in a series of features.
While the U.S. southern border remains a campaign issue, the outcome of November’s U.S. presidential election could also affect the northern border with Canada, which remains the world’s longest undefended border. . In his pursuit of the White House, Republican candidate Donald Trump vows to deport millions of illegal immigrants, while Democrat Kamala Harris vows to tighten her grip on illegal border crossings and asylum seekers. It has become
“If Trump is elected and commits to mass deportation, a lot of people will seek asylum in Canada,” Donald Abelson, a political science professor at Western University, told CTVNews.ca. I think that’s what they’re talking about.” “Maybe not so much in Harris’ case, but that’s mainly because her policies aren’t as strict, and she’s not having it easy when it comes to border issues.”
Here’s how the Canada-U.S. border could be affected if Trump or Harris becomes the next U.S. president.
President Trump promises mass deportations
After Trump took office as president of the United States in January 2017, irregular border crossings and asylum claims in Canada rapidly increased. Under threat of deportation from the Trump administration, thousands of undocumented immigrants and former U.S. temporary residents appear to have chosen to take a chance by walking into Canada.
According to Canadian Immigration, Refugees and CitizenshipAccording to the data, illegal immigration jumped from 2,434 in 2016 to 20,593 in 2017, while the number of asylum seekers more than doubled from 23,860 to 50,375 in the same period. The majority arrived in Quebec by land, crossing unclear and unofficial borders such as: Wroxham Road It is attracting national attention.
Irregular border crossings reached a new peak in 2022 under President Joe Biden. It was just before Canada and the United States changed the rules of their Safe Third Country Agreement in March 2023, limiting asylum claims to official border outposts. While asylum applications remain high in Canada, the number of people entering the country illegally has since declined.
On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to initiate a new wave of mass deportations by invoking wartime powers, using the military and relying on allied governors.
“You know, we’ve had to deal with this before,” Abelson, who specializes in American politics and foreign policy, said of President Trump’s recent deportation threats. . “Certainly there’s a good chance we have to prepare for it.”
potentially Targeting millions of peopleit remains to be seen whether something of this scale is possible or doomed to stall like Trump’s previously proposed border wall. It is estimated that more than 11 million illegal immigrants reside in the United States
Joseph Nunn, a lawyer at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law, told The Associated Press that “what Mr. Trump seems to be considering could be legal.” “It would be very complex and difficult logistically…but it is possible and should be taken seriously.”
The number of deportees per year during Trump’s first term never exceeded 350,000, significantly lower than in the previous term. President Barack Obama’s record-breaking 432,000 visitors But unlike Obama, Trump has long targeted illegal immigrants to rally his base.
“As soon as I take the oath of office, I will begin the largest deportation operation in the history of our country,” Trump said at a campaign event in Michigan in July. The next month in Montana, he promised to “close our borders, stop invasions, and send illegal aliens back to their rightful homes.”
Al Parsay, a Toronto-based immigration consultant, said further tightening of border controls under President Trump could slow the flow of people and goods between the United States and Canada. An estimated 400,000 people travel between the two countries every day for work, sightseeing and shopping.
“Trump’s approach could lead to stricter border inspections and longer wait times for Canadians and Americans crossing the border,” Parsay told CTVNews.ca. “His emphasis on security could lead to additional requirements and stricter screening for travelers, complicating the border-crossing experience, especially if security measures are too restrictive. This could be frustrating for travelers who frequently cross borders.
Harris toughens stance on border
Ms. Harris has recently tried to take a tougher stance on immigration during her campaign, but she still has a stance that appeals to liberal voters.
“I reject the false choice between securing our borders and creating a safe, orderly, and humane immigration system,” Harris said in a speech. September 27th Speech in ArizonaBorders Mexico. “We can and must do both.”
Harris and her running mate are generally seen as easier for Ottawa to work with because of their close ties to Canada. Harris spent his formative years in Monreal. graduated from high school. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who shares an 885-kilometre border with Ontario and Manitoba, has also long fostered personal, cultural and economic ties between the neighboring states.
“I think Ms. Harris, who is familiar with Canada and has lived here, will have a much easier relationship with her running mate, Mr. Walz, than with Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance.” Abelson said. There’s no question about that.
But Harris is known for switching positions and shifting positions. She previously opposed Obama-era deportations and supported calls to treat illegal border crossings as civil rather than criminal violations. As a presidential candidate, Harris hardened her image by pledging to strengthen border security and crack down on illegal immigration.
“The United States is a sovereign nation and we believe we have an obligation to set and enforce rules at our borders, and we take that responsibility very seriously,” Harris said in Arizona. “Anyone who crosses our border illegally will be arrested, deported, and barred from re-entering for five years. And if someone crosses our border illegally without applying for asylum at a legal point of entry, , the person shall be prohibited from receiving “asylum”. ”
Abelson said Harris’ behavior on the campaign trail could change if she wins the presidency.
“Certainly the Harris campaign has shifted a little bit, certainly becoming a little more conservative, because the fear among undecided voters is that she’s not going to be tough enough. “Or maybe he’s not as good at protecting America’s interests as Mr. Trump is,” Abelson said. “But you know, there’s a big difference between campaigning and governing, and right now, of course, her first priority is to get elected. And once she’s elected, at least the rhetoric against someone like Harris will weaken. Not so much for Trump.”
Will Americans move north if Trump wins?
Almost every U.S. election has a headline like this: Americans threaten to move north to Canada If your preferred candidate loses.
Typically, U.S. citizens make up a small but steady share of new permanent residents in Canada, at just under 3% since 2015. While interest sometimes increases around elections, experts say this rarely translates into substantial immigration numbers.
Jacqueline Burt, a Toronto-based immigration lawyer, previously told CTVNews.ca that “since President Trump, we have seen an increase in immigration applicants leaving the United States for a more liberal Canada.” “Most Americans who want to immigrate to Canada are liberal, middle-aged Americans. Given their age, it is difficult for them to immigrate unless they have full-time employment in Canada or start a business in Canada. It’s difficult.”
With files from Canadian Press and Associated Press
