In the summer of 1978, Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, against the advice of his top political strategists, called across-the-board by-elections to fill 15 vacant seats in the House of Commons, including seven that the Liberal Party had won in the previous election.
John English’s Just lookThe Liberal pollster said the ruling party’s chances of victory ranged from “slim to dire,” and when the results were in on the evening of October 16, the Liberals had only managed to retain one of seven seats, losing the remaining six to Joe Clark’s Progressive Conservatives.
Clearly, this did not bode well for the Liberal party’s fortunes in the federal election, which was less than a year away, but Pierre Trudeau insisted he would not give in.
“I’m not going to lose a few by-elections,” he said. “I’m going to wait and see what happens in the general election.”
While comparing father and son is a bit of a stretch, the example of Pierre Trudeau’s Liberal Party in 1978 offers at least one lesson for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party in 2024.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there is “more work to do” following the Liberal candidate’s defeat in Montreal’s LaSalle-Emard-Verdun electoral district on Monday. Trudeau said the Liberal party needs to make sure voters “understand what’s at stake in this upcoming election.”
“Of course, I’ll win. [LaSalle-Émard-Verdun]”There’s still work to be done, but we’re going to be focused on that,” Trudeau told reporters on Tuesday morning, appearing somewhat more humble than his father (though the younger Trudeau appears no less rebellious at heart).
The margin of victory in LaSalle-Emard-Verdun was just 248 votes, but the fact that it was so close is more important than the fact that the Liberals lost this constituency, rather than won it by a narrow margin: Two years ago, the Liberals’ margin of victory in this constituency was nearly 10,000 votes.
The by-election results come with a number of caveats: Turnout was consistently low, there was relatively little at stake and a single data point can only tell us so much about an electoral map that currently includes 343 constituencies.
But there is little in the way of election scenarios in which the Liberals don’t win by substantial margins in constituencies like LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, or Toronto-St. Paul, which the Liberals lost by 633 votes in June.
The party’s loss of two constituencies that could once be described as “strongholds” only makes clear how much work Trudeau’s Liberals will have to do between now and the next federal election if they want to stay in power — or even simply avoid being defeated by a Conservative majority.
Is Trudeau still the best option for the Liberal Party?
Naturally, the question will focus on the prime minister’s future: Is Trudeau still the best option for the Liberal party? Many people have opinions on this issue, but the only ones that matter at this point are those of Downing Street and the Liberal caucus.
Trudeau supporters might say the most important data released Tuesday wasn’t the final vote count for Liberal candidates in LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, but rather the results of a Statistics Canada survey. Inflation has fallen to 2%.
Having inflation return to the Bank of Canada’s target won’t magically solve all of Trudeau’s government’s problems, but the latest data may give the Liberals more reason to believe that voters may be in a more tolerant mood by the time a federal election is called.
And the more inflation becomes a thing of the past, Trudeau will tell voters that, unlike in recent by-elections, The next election will involve meaningful choices with big stakes..
Immigration Minister Marc Miller said he “takes very personally” the loss of the Liberal candidate in Montreal’s LaSalle-Emard-Verdun electoral district. Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the Liberals need to “redouble their efforts.” Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said the ruling Liberal party “needs to do more to address the problem of rising house prices.”
“What’s important is making sure Canadians understand that the next election is really about making a choice about what kind of country we are,” Trudeau said Tuesday when asked what the Liberals should do now.
But the results in Toronto-St. Paul and LaSalle-Emard-Verdun clearly raise the question of whether Mr. Trudeau can make that argument and win. Are too many voters simply tired of him, and if so, would the Liberal Party be better off putting someone else in charge?
For the party, either option is a gamble and carries great risks.
In 1978, John Turner was on the sidelines (he had left government in 1975 to work as a corporate lawyer on Bay Street in Toronto), but Pierre Trudeau stayed on and led the Liberal Party into the federal election in the spring of 1979. Trudeau still had the advantage of higher personal approval ratings than the Progressive Conservative leader, Joe Clark.
The Liberals did indeed win the popular vote, but as the by-elections predicted, they were reduced to 114 seats and Clark’s Conservatives came to power. But crucially, the Conservatives failed to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.
Before the year was out, Clark’s government was defeated in a budget vote. Pierre Trudeau was again sworn in as Prime Minister in February 1980.
No strategist could plan the same sequence of events today, and it would be unwise to try. If there is one lesson to be learned from the 1978 by-elections and their aftermath, it is that the future is unpredictable.
