A storm is approaching Vancouver Island, and it’s not coming from offshore.
Eric Grenier of polling website The Lit predicts that the Conservatives could lose five of the six New Democrat-held constituencies on the island in the next federal election.
That’s a potential change that residents of Campbell River, British Columbia are starting to notice on the ground.
“Islands feel more conservative than they used to be, especially the North Island,” said Kelsey McCrea, a mother of three and co-owner of a local welding company with her husband.
“So far, I think people’s hearts have been swayed more by actual common sense than by voting NDP. I know myself, my family, all my friends are not going to vote NDP. We’re going to vote Conservative.”
The House12:18Why Vancouver Island will be a battleground for the blue and orange
The Liberal Party is meeting on Vancouver Island this week, but the party has little chance of winning there. CBC’s Emma Godmere speaks to voters in Campbell River, B.C., and party strategists Mike MacKinnon and Ally Blades about the looming seat battle between the NDP and Conservatives.
Island voters have primarily supported the New Democrats in the past few federal elections, but in 2019 they sent Green Party Leader Elizabeth May to Ottawa and also elected a Green Party MP.
Voters have not sent a Liberal member to Parliament since the 2008 election, and there are currently no Conservative members on the island, although the party won two seats in 2011 when Stephen Harper won a majority.
McCrea said the vote was driven by rising costs of doing business, as his company often does repairs for commercial fishing boats and builds steel piers and boat ramps.
“Since COVID-19, we’ve noticed that the prices of steel and aluminum have gone up significantly and haven’t come down,” she said, “and that impacts our business, it impacts the prices our customers can afford, it impacts the prices we can produce for people across the island.”
McCrea said she and her husband pay themselves and their employees an average wage, leaving the company with not much money left over.
“It’s actually disheartening to know that sometimes you work hard and it’s not enough,” she said, “and I feel like the government in Ottawa doesn’t understand that the middle class is so severely squeezed.”
The disconnect between federal politicians and Vancouver Island voters is also felt by another mother, Sophie Waterman, of Campbell River, who says she feels the federal government doesn’t understand how much it costs to raise a family.
“What I want to hear from politicians is if they’re really going to be honest about the cost of child care for families,” said Waterman, the emergency physician. “I’m not a policy-driven voter, but this story will definitely change my mind.”
She said she has had to cut back on her hours and may soon leave work altogether to care for her baby and toddler as a shift worker.
“For people who work shifts, it’s not possible to juggle full-time childcare with being two working parents,” she says.
“If you don’t have a family, you have to pay for a village, right? You have to pay for people to come and help you, and the costs are skyrocketing…If you pay the child support you need to keep your family functioning, it’s going to cost as much as a mortgage.”
Still, Waterman said he’s likely to vote for the NDP or Liberals in the next federal election, knowing he could soon be in the minority.
“I feel like the Conservative policies don’t really reflect my values or the traditional values of Vancouver Island,” she said.
“But I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes, because people here are really suffering.”
This week’s topics: The House of Commons returns with a new minority, the by-elections in Winnipeg and Montreal are must-wins, and the Liberals hire Mark Carney.
Targeting the Labour vote
Mike MacKinnon, who worked out of the NDP headquarters in Ottawa during the past two federal election cycles and focused on the party’s work in British Columbia, is now based in Victoria as a senior consultant with Enterprise Canada and said the key for the New Democrats in the next election is connecting with working voters about the challenges they face.
“The NDP has always fought for workers and workers’ rights and for the poor and people struggling with the cost of living,” he said, “and now there’s an opportunity for the NDP to better demonstrate that.”
Election strategist Ally Blades, who works with Conservative candidates in the region and helped manage Pierre Poirievre’s leadership campaign in the province, stressed the importance of Labour’s vote.
“The voter that every political party has to win in Canada is the Labour vote,” he said. “They expect to do their job well, go to work nine to five and then they’ll earn a living in Canada. And at the moment that doesn’t seem to be the case.”
Jocelyn Proud, a political science professor at Vancouver Island University, said the real litmus test may be whether provincial parties resonate with voters in next month’s British Columbia provincial election.
“If the Conservative Party, the B.C. Conservative Party, this relatively new breed of party, does well, that would be very good news for the federal Conservative party,” she said.
“The fact that this new provincial Conservative party is suddenly becoming a major competitor to the governing New Democrats, I think that probably gives a lot of hope to the federal Conservatives right now.”
Blades and MacKinnon said they both plan to closely monitor the results next month.
“[People] “You’ve probably noticed in the state election that there’s a blue door and an orange door,” McKinnon said.
“They’re going to be looking more closely at the blue option than they ever have before, and that’s going to play a big role in the next election.”
Political reporters Katie DeRosa and Justin Hunter say the BC New Democratic Party’s decision to reverse its position on the carbon tax relieves some political pressure on the party and puts pressure on the federal government, while BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau says the move shows a lack of leadership. Premier David Eby says it’s based on affordability for British Columbians.
