An email from National Caucus Chair Brenda Shanahan rejecting requests to hold the Liberal Party’s national caucus in person earlier arrived in lawmakers’ inboxes around 5 p.m. on July 4.
Citing “scheduling arrangements,” Shanahan publicly rejected a request by Liberal MPs for an emergency meeting to discuss the impact of their loss in the Toronto-St. Paul by-election.
In the words of one Liberal MP, it was a reaction “like a fart in church”.
“How can he convince the people if he cannot even meet his own party members?” the lawmaker said.
In addition to evoking a potent metaphor, Shanahan’s email pointed to another challenge facing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his staff as they try to navigate the waters of caucus turmoil.
Shanahan urged lawmakers, who are discussing next steps following his by-election defeat, to respect the confidentiality of their caucus and not leak information to the media.
Her email was quickly leaked to the media.
Those within the Liberal Party who oppose holding an all-in-person caucus meeting say it would attract media attention: MPs would meet to vent, air grievances and make finger-pointing, all of which would be leaked to journalists and add to the negative news cycle the party is desperately trying to avoid.
But in the absence of those meetings, lawmakers have been calling and texting reporters to vent, express frustration and make remarks, much of which is still leaking to the media without any effect in easing the pressure that an in-person meeting would bring.
CBC News spoke with more than a dozen Liberal MPs, cabinet ministers, political staff, campaign workers and organizers to get a sense of the mood inside the party, days after the party’s unexpected defeat in the by-election.
Trudeau’s supporters argue that many of the anonymous protests come from a small number of prominent contrarians who are upset about not running again or being removed from cabinet.
They argue that a significant number of Liberal MPs, though not a majority, still support Justin Trudeau’s leadership and are content to weather the situation.
The Senators in the Middle
Even the prime minister’s harshest internal critics agree with that assessment, but they point to another big segment of the caucus – the centrists – who aren’t calling for Trudeau’s resignation but are looking for some tangible change.
These critics say Trudeau must stabilize his caucus before he can begin to engage with voters, and their blunt assessment is that he won’t have public support until he’s sure he has the caucus on his side.
The caucus is united in wanting change, and several Liberal MPs told CBC News that the majority of the caucus seems ready to give the prime minister time to demonstrate change.
A Liberal source told CBC News that some Liberal MPs may not stand in the next election if Justin Trudeau remains leader, saying they believe the prime minister’s “leadership is irreparably damaged.”
How Trudeau responds, and how quickly he does so, will be crucial, they say.
“There are people waiting to see how he responds,” a second MP told CBC News. [the Prime Minister’s Office] I don’t think it will be good for them if they wait until September.”
It’s a shared view among the Liberal party, with several MPs telling CBC News they hope to see visible change, or clear signs of change, within the next two weeks, especially before the prime minister goes on summer recess.
Insiders warn lawmakers could ‘walk out’
Even Trudeau’s allies have warned that he will make only minor tweaks if he plans to stay on: They say they want a major shakeup of the cabinet, a shakeup of senior staff, a major change in direction on policy, or a combination of all three.
But the caucus doesn’t agree on what needs to change, only that Trudeau will need to settle on one or more of these three options if he’s serious about leading the party to a fourth election.
Party officials say centrist lawmakers would not necessarily rebel if changes were not swift and meaningful, but they could become discouraged.
“It might not be pitchforks and torches,” the second lawmaker said, “but people who have been in council for many years might just walk away and head for the exits.”
Several MPs told CBC News they’re concerned the Prime Minister’s Office will try to ride out the summer slowly before facing internal problems when the next caucus meets in September. They point out that party leadership didn’t immediately meet caucus after the by-elections, or even virtually.
Efforts to downplay by-election defeat
They said they were troubled by the lack of a clear communications plan to respond to a possible loss in the Toronto-St. Paul constituency, even though the local campaign had reported signs of trouble long before the 4 a.m. vote count handed the Liberal seat of 30 years to the Conservatives.
They also said they were frustrated by an initial internal public relations effort that seemed more focused on downplaying the losses than attacking the issues that caused them.
In the days immediately following the by-election, messaging from Downing Street focused on promises to do things differently, to work harder and to simplify the message.
Political staff have also been urged by senior members of staff not to talk much about the loss among themselves, with one senior member saying at a recent meeting of government communications chiefs that the loss “felt bigger than it actually was,” according to sources.
This is not the message MPs and political staff were expecting or wanting to hear after a by-election defeat brought home the numbers they have seen over a tough year of polling.
Trudeau met with national caucus leaders on Tuesday, and Liberal sources said he appreciated the caucus chairs’ input and their efforts to bring caucus concerns to the table. But he didn’t offer specifics about what he’ll do next, other than promising to continue to reach out and listen.
Trudeau continues one-on-one caucus talks
The prime minister has been calling more MPs directly recently, as have his senior staff. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland recently hosted a so-called 416 MP conference in her own backyard in Toronto.
The discussions are expected to take place in small groups or one-on-one, which some Liberal members see as an attempt by the Prime Minister’s Office to control the dialogue – to respond to calls for cleansing before the national caucus with a centralized process.
The situation has left many party members and political staff anxious and seeking reassurance. With no clear signs of change, MPs and staffers are warning of a lack of motivation in the party at a time when it faces another crucial by-election in David Lametti’s former Montreal riding, LaSalle-Emard-Verdun.
Lametti’s seat, like Carolyn Bennett’s former constituency of Toronto-St. Paul, is only becoming vacant due to a cabinet reshuffle in July 2023 aimed at adding fresh blood and new energy to the prime minister’s inner circle.
At the time of the reshuffle, the Liberals were concerned about holding on to battleground seats in the suburbs of Canada’s biggest cities, but now the Conservatives have gained seats in downtown Toronto and many Liberals say the NDP poses a threat in Montreal.
LaSalle-Emard-Verdun is a must-win for the Liberal Party, as losing its key seat in Toronto and then Montreal could turn anxiety among the Liberal caucus into panic.
