A new poll shows Albertans view Naheed Nenshi most positively of the NDP leadership contenders, but whoever wins, the party still faces a tough battle against the ruling UCP. There is.
“Getting more than half of Albertans to vote for the NDP is always going to be a difficult prospect, and of all the candidates currently running, it’s more difficult than Rachel Notley is today,” said pollster David Collett. There are no candidates who have achieved this.”
“That doesn’t mean it can’t be done or won’t be possible in the future.”
According to the Abacus Data survey of 1,000 people, Nenshi received a positive impression from 31 per cent of respondents, with NDP MLA Sarah Hoffman having the second highest positive impression at 12 per cent. ing.
Nenshi, a former Calgary mayor, also had the most negative impression of any NDP candidate, at 23 per cent. However, Albertans viewed Nenshi more favorably overall than his competitors, giving him a net positive impression of eight points.
Calgary MLA Kathleen Ganley was the only candidate to receive a positive online impression from respondents, although many did not know the candidate well enough to form an opinion.
Rakhi Pancholi, who withdrew from the race on Tuesday, had a net negative impression of -2, but 61% of those surveyed said they didn’t know enough about her to form an impression.
Nenshi announced his plans to run for leadership on March 11, joining a field of candidates running to replace NDP Leader Rachel Notley, who lost to the United Conservative Party last spring.
The field currently includes Nenshi, Ganley, Hoffman, Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Jody Callahoo-Stonehouse, and Labor leader Gil McGowan.
The poll, conducted from March 14 to March 21, suggests there is some ground for the next NDP leader to make amends.
When all respondents were asked who they would vote for if local elections were held today, 45% said they would vote for the UCP, down 1 percentage point from October.
Thirty-three per cent said they would vote NDP, a number that has remained unchanged since October. Two per cent said they would vote for the Alberta Party, two per cent were in the “other” category and 18 per cent of respondents were undecided.
A total of 779 active voters responded, with 55 per cent saying they would vote for the UCP and 40 per cent saying they would vote for the New Democratic Party of Alberta.
With its committed voters, the UCP is strongest outside the province’s two largest centres, with 66 per cent of respondents in other communities disapproving of the party, compared to Calgary (52 per cent) and Edmonton (42 per cent). I support it.
The Abacus Data study also explores which NDP candidates will be most effective at lowering the UCP’s numbers.
When committed voters were asked to consider how they would vote for different NDP candidates for party leadership, Nenshi came out strongest among the field.
But no one did better than Notley in the polls, and no one did better than the UCP.
“Outside of these two major cities, the NDP has a long way to go before they can convince enough people to vote and win a majority of seats in smaller areas around the province,” Collette said. Stated.
“Whether the NDP can do that remains to be seen. But the early evidence from this survey is that no political party can ignite fire or interest among Albertans who wouldn’t vote for the NDP right now.” This suggests that it is not causing any
But Melanie Thomas, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, said Albertans believe that less than a year has passed since the last provincial election, giving the next NDP leader more time to establish themselves in politics. It pointed out.
“Whoever the new leader is, it will take the longest time in the last three years to develop a vision for the party and make sure the people know who we are and what we do. So in this sense, I would say, ‘Don’t make too much of a fuss about these numbers,”’ Thomas said.
Despite the NDP’s lead in the horse race portion of the Abacus poll, the UCP’s disapproval rate exceeded its support rate among Albertans overall surveyed.
32% of respondents said they approved of Prime Minister Daniel Smith’s government’s efforts, while 38% disapproved. 22% neither agreed nor opposed. 7% did not know.
The survey also found that 36% of respondents said the state was heading in the right direction, while 46% said it was on the wrong track. 18% were unsure.
“For example, if you compare how people in Alberta feel about the direction of the country and other provinces, and how people in Ontario and the federal government feel about the direction of the country and other provinces, we find that the province is heading in the wrong direction more than it is in the right direction. “Alberta is actually more optimistic, even though more people think so,” Collette said.
The issues respondents want the UCP government to focus on most are controlling the cost of living, improving health care and improving the education system.
The Abacus Data survey was conducted using an online panel. The margin of error for a random sample of this size based on equal probabilities is plus or minus 3.16 percentage points (19 out of 20).
