When it was first discovered in 2004, Apophis was recognized as one of the most dangerous asteroids due to its potential to collide with Earth. But that impact assessment now reveals that astronomers have tracked Apophis, also known as asteroid 99942, and its orbit has been determined more precisely, and that it is on course to approach our planet. After that, things changed over the years.
New research led by Western astronomers Paul Wiegert It hypothesizes what would happen if Apophis’ orbit changed after a collision with another asteroid. Spoiler alert: That’s not the case.
Apophis, a near-Earth object (NEO) estimated to be approximately 335 meters in diameter, is expected to approach Earth in 2029 and 2036 (expected to safely pass within 37,399 km on April 13, 2029) It has been). Scientists had long determined that the asteroid would safely hit Earth on such an occasion, but Wiegert and co-author Benjamin Hyatt of the University of Waterloo believe that Apophis The paths of all 1.3 million known asteroids in the solar system were carefully calculated to rule out the possibility of collisions. Another asteroid changes its predicted course towards Earth.
Paul Wiegert
“We used detailed computer simulations of the solar system to calculate the paths of all known asteroids, and the likelihood of such an unlikely event was assessed,” Wiegert said. physics and astronomy Professor. “Fortunately, no such collision is expected.”
The results were accepted by Planetary Science Journal, Now available online.
“Given how close Apophis will pass Earth, it could deviate from its current orbit and bring Apophis closer to hitting us,” said Waterloo, who supported the study over two summers. University undergraduate Hyatt said. “Hypothetically, another asteroid impacting Apophis could cause such a deflection, providing motivation to study this scenario, even if it is unlikely.”
Animation of the closest approach between Apophis and several known asteroids
A not-so-killer asteroid
The closest path between a known asteroid and Apophis was identified by Wiegert and Hyatt for future monitoring to maintain situational awareness and refine the trajectory, but the overall path for Apophis to collide with a known asteroid was The risk is almost zero.
“The asteroid Apophis has fascinated us as a species since its discovery in 2004. It was the first credible threat to our planet from an asteroid,” said Wiegert, a member of the study group. said. Earth and Space Exploration Research Institute. “Astronomers remain vigilant, even though we know it will miss us by a safe margin. It’s an asteroid we can’t help but keep an eye on.”
Apophis is named after the demonic serpent who personified evil and chaos in ancient Egyptian mythology.
These images of the asteroid Apophis were recorded on March 26, 2021 by radio antennas at the Deep Space Network’s Goldstone complex in California and the Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia. The asteroid is 17 million kilometers away, and each pixel has a resolution of 38.75 meters. (NASA/JPL-Caltech and NSF/AUI/GBO images)
