What will happen in a war between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?

In early 2023, hopes were high that Ukraine’s much-vaunted counteroffensive, scheduled to begin in the spring, would turn the tide of the war against Russia.

That won’t happen, and a breakthrough in 2024 is unlikely, military experts and defense analysts told CNBC.

They predict that heavy fighting is likely to continue into next year, but say Kiev forces are unlikely to launch any further counterattacks. Russia, on the other hand, is likely to focus on consolidating the territory it has already captured, particularly in eastern Ukraine.

Away from the battlefield, military experts say the outcome of the 2024 Russia-Ukraine war will be determined primarily by the United States, Ukraine’s largest military backer, thousands of miles away, and in the preparations for war. He said that would depend on whether aid would be reduced after the war. American presidential election.

“War is an act of uncertainty,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of U.S. European Command, told CNBC.

“Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And as you look at things now, if you think about it, what has been accomplished this year? Russia has accomplished Very few have done it. And you can.’ Tell the same thing to the Ukrainians,’ he said.

“We are now in a situation where, without a clear winner, there will be a stalemate and perhaps a freeze in the conflict in the future. In my view, the only thing that could change the balance is Ukraine. If that side were to win, Twitty said, “they wouldn’t be able to resupply, they wouldn’t be able to refinance, they wouldn’t have the equipment and manpower that they needed, and that could turn the war on Russia’s side.” .

A year ago, Ukraine’s international military support was robust, with NATO pledging to support Kiev “for as long as necessary” to defend it from a Russian invasion that began in February 2022.

But the challenge facing Ukrainian forces during the summer was a struggle to penetrate heavily fortified Russian positions and defense lines along a 600-mile-long front line across the country’s south and east. The challenges facing the Ukrainian military were clear.

After liberating several villages in the summer, Ukrainian and Russian forces are largely locked in a war of attrition, with neither side able to achieve any major victories.

Ukrainian military officials admitted that their hopes and expectations for a major breakthrough in the counterattack had not been fulfilled. Still, the Ukrainian leadership believes that a bold Ukrainian attack on Russian bases and assets in Crimea this summer, which inflicted heavy losses on the Russian military, prompted the withdrawal of the Russian navy, and that Russian forces are in other regions such as the Black Sea. He says he has made important progress. Number of warships from Sevastopol, He brought victory to Kiev in the Battle of the Black Sea.

Weather conditions in Ukraine are deteriorating, with mud, freezing rain, snow and ice making attacks and reconnaissance operations difficult. Nevertheless, heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces conducting offensive operations, particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, with several confirmed advances in recent days.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said last week that Russia’s military will “take control of the front and maintain the lead ahead of Russia’s presidential elections in March 2024” during the most severe weather of the autumn-winter season.

During, ISWs noted in the analysis“Ukraine’s armed forces are establishing and strengthening defensive positions in order to conserve personnel and resources in preparation for future offensive operations.”

The Ukrainian military is taking a more defensive posture depending on the situation. Last week, a senior army general warned on the front lines: Ukrainian army faces artillery shortage, curtails some military operations This is due to the lack of foreign aid.

There is no doubt that another year of war in Europe has depleted Western military resources and the political desire to maintain massive military aid to Ukraine.

Continued funding to Ukraine in 2024 is by no means safe, given the fact that the US presidential election could lead to a dramatic change in attitudes and support for Kiev.

Particular attention has been focused on the former US president. Republican front-runner Donald Trump forged close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin during his term as president.

There are concerns that aid to Ukraine could be quickly shelved, given President Trump’s previously good relations with Russia and his “America First” policy. Defense analysts agree that much of Ukraine’s outlook depends on the outcome of the U.S. vote.

“I think it’s important to understand how dependent Ukraine is on the US right now, because it’s much more dependent on the US than it is on the EU,” said a defense analyst at the Royal Institute for Defense Studies. Sam Cranny Evans says. A defense think tank told CNBC.

“If the U.S. election goes against Ukraine, combined with the fact that the EU is not serious about it, ammunition production will be far below what is needed by now to benefit Ukraine. A long way off. The hope of survival and the hope of winning, that’s not a very bright prediction for 2024.”

Whispers of dissatisfaction with continued aid to Ukraine have been heard in recent months in some Republican circles and in Eastern Europe.

Kurt Volker, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, told CNBC that he believes the U.S. and EU aid package for Ukraine will be approved in January, and that the funding will keep Ukraine militarily afloat for another year. He said he was deaf. But Volcker said the aid package must include more advanced weapons for Ukraine, such as the F-16 fighter jets promised by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands.

Ukrainian pilots are now starting training on jet aircraft But it could be several months before they are deployed to Ukraine. The United States has not provided Ukraine with F-16s, but it has authorized allies to provide their own jets.

“Some things have to change,” Volker told CNBC. “We should lift restrictions on the weapons we provide. We have not yet delivered the longest-range missiles, we have not yet delivered Western aircraft to Ukraine. These things have to happen. And I “I think we should try to give Ukrainians more of a technological edge,” he said.

Volcker said he believes a Trump presidency may not result in the Ukraine disaster that was feared, but it does make future funding uncertain.

“Even if Trump were elected, I don’t think he would abandon support for all of Ukraine because it would be a disaster for U.S. interests and would look like a failure. “I don’t think he wants that, but it’s not clear exactly what he would do to end the war.”

Meanwhile, President Trump said if re-elected, the Ukraine war could be resolved “in one day” and said he would persuade the Ukrainian and Russian leaders to reach a deal.

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said last week that its main goal in 2024 is to strengthen the country’s defense industry amid uncertainty about future supplies from Western allies. He also revised the conscription law, foreseeing the need to strengthen the military with more advanced training and equipment, although it is smaller than the Russian army. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that the military was requesting up to 500,000 additional conscripts, but said he needed to hear “further discussions” to support the delicate and costly proposal. Ta.

With both Ukraine and Russia heavily invested in the war, negotiations to end the conflict or agree to a ceasefire are unlikely. Defense analysts argue that neither side will be willing to negotiate unless they are in a position of strength and ability to dictate terms.

“If the Republican Party wins next year’s presidential election, especially if it’s Donald Trump, who appears to be the front-runner, [if] A significant reduction in funding would increase pressure on Ukraine to negotiate,” Mario Bykalsky, Europe and Russia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC.

“Of course, Ukraine does not want to negotiate at the moment…but given the situation, it will have little choice but to comply. And the question remains whether Russia is willing to negotiate. Although Ukraine would be forced to participate in these negotiations, Russia may see this as a new opportunity to consolidate more of its interests.

Defense experts told CNBC that the baseline scenario for 2024 is a continuation of the current heavy fighting but the same sense of stalemate, with neither side able to make much progress on the ground and unable to seize or regain territory. Told.