The plane suddenly dropped several feet, climbed, then stumbled back down. I held my breath and braced myself for the inevitable shaking. The flight attendant handed me a barf bag and gave me a conciliatory smile. The turbulence was not her fault, nor was it the pilot’s fault. But during the 20 minutes of my flight from Denver to my home in Indianapolis, the plane bobbed up and down, and at times the passengers gasped in unison, making me shiver – I was afraid of the plane and the height. It’s scary though–I was shaking from the bottom of my heart. I thought this might be the last plane I would ever take.
My experience was not an outlier. turbulence are becoming more common and more intense. On this particular flight, we experienced mountain turbulence, the bumps that sometimes occur when flying over mountainous areas. Other types of turbulence include bumps caused by thunderstorms and clear-air turbulence. Researchers say this last wave may be on the rise, making my usual mountain wave turbulence even more troublesome.
Clear-weather turbulence can occur even without bad weather, mountain ranges, or mechanical problems with the plane. Isabel Smith, a PhD in meteorology, said it was caused by wind shear, a sudden change in wind speed often associated with the jet stream, a band of strong winds high in the atmosphere. student at the University of Reading in England told me. Smith and her advisor, atmospheric science professor Paul Williams, found that clear-sky turbulence has increased by 15% since 1979, when satellites began observing the atmosphere.
As a result, flight operations around the world have become unstable. March of this year, Lufthansa flights From Austin, Texas to Frankfurt, Germany very bumpy Seven passengers were reportedly injured. The plane had to be diverted to Washington, DC.
of The culprit behind newly wild skies is climate changesaid Smith. As emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide rise, so do global temperatures, increasing the wind shear produced by the jet stream, which leads to “speed bumps in the sky,” or turbulence. That’s a problem that won’t go away. In 2017, Williams used climate model simulations to predict future turbulence.he found Clear air turbulence in the Northern Hemisphere could triple in the next 30 to 60 years. And as emissions increase, so does overall turbulence. This is a vicious cycle that creates a new reality for air travel, which is already plagued by serious problems. problem Since the beginning of the pandemic. Next time you travel, be sure to pack Ambien. Because it’s going to be bumpy.
speed bump in the sky
Here’s how it works: As emissions from greenhouse gases spread through the atmosphere, they create unpredictable patterns of warm and cold spots in the upper layers of the sky, making the air bumpy for planes. Rising temperatures due to greenhouse gases also cause extreme weather events, further disrupting the jet stream.
Bill Duncan, the Weather Company’s aviation forecasting operations leader, told me that the jet stream is different from what was seen 20 to 30 years ago. “The jet stream is wobbling right now, so to speak,” he says. “For example, you’ve probably heard articles written about the polar vortex. The jet stream isn’t as powerful as it was in the past, so it’s a little curved, but now all the energy associated with the jet stream is 30,000 ft. It’s allowing cooler air to flow south, and we’re seeing big weather events happening more and more than before.”
No flight path or airport is truly safe from increasing turbulence
This increase in clear-sky turbulence has led to a dramatic increase in other types of turbulence, such as the mountain air turbulence I experienced over Denver. “This type of turbulence is caused by airflow passing over mountainous terrain and becoming highly unstable, creating waves in the atmosphere that can break and become chaotic and potentially dangerous if encountered. ,” Dr. Smith said. said the student. Denver is located in the lee of the Rocky Mountains. Mountain wave turbulence hotspot. Additionally, flight paths over mountainous areas or along coastlines, where temperatures can change unexpectedly, are more prone to turbulence.
After my last flight, Denver may no longer be on my vacation destination list. However, no flight path or airport is truly safe from increased turbulence. “In the future, air turbulence of all types is likely to increase in all seasons in most places around the world,” explains John K. Williams, director of weather AI science at The Weather Company. “Maybe it could double in some places.” Smith said fall and spring weather conditions are typically more stable, so flight conditions are generally milder, but these seasons are affected by changes in barometric pressure. There is a possibility that it will become more unstable.
turbulent future
Airlines could potentially reduce their chances of encountering clear-sky turbulence by avoiding Earth’s four major jet streams altogether. Commercial airlines tend to rely on these high wind corridors as a kind of boost to reduce flight time and fuel usage. It’s like walking on a moving walkway. But atmospheric changes have made these passages more bumpy, so avoiding them can make your flight smoother. However, the experts I spoke to didn’t think this was a real solution. Without a jet stream, flights would take longer, require more fuel, be more expensive, and have a negative impact on the environment. It’s not a very attractive option for airlines.
Still, pilots will likely have to take a different flight path to avoid turbulence. Duncan explained that meteorologists, dispatchers and pilots can adjust flight paths based on timely weather data. Currently, this information is often too late to make a difference, but as weather modeling technology improves, that may change. And that’s what John K. Williams is betting on.
“In recent years, the ability to predict the location, timing, and severity of turbulence has also improved, allowing airlines and pilots to use those predictions to choose routes that are less bumpy, or at least protect passengers and crew from turbulence. “Now you can prepare for the section that goes into the air,” he said.
On some flights, it may be necessary to discontinue in-flight meal service, restrict passengers from standing up or use the restroom, or limit the actions of flight attendants.
AI is at the heart of these improvements. “Machine learning algorithms are used to find relationships between historical weather and turbulence observations, and the algorithms improve themselves as more data is collected,” Williams explained. “These algorithms are run using the latest weather forecast model data and can pinpoint areas of potentially dangerous turbulence.”
However, while turbulence can be avoided, it cannot be completely avoided. This is why some companies are going back to the drawing board to design planes that can better adapt to turbulence. Neural Concept, a Swiss company that uses AI-generated simulations to help industrial companies improve engineering, is currently working with aircraft manufacturer Airbus to improve aircraft designs.
Neural Concept co-founder and CEO Pierre Baquet said designing a plane that is more stable in turbulence is difficult because there are so many variables to consider. “This is where AI becomes important to him,” he said. “By applying deep learning models to a database of simulations, aircraft manufacturers can gain real-time insight into the correlations between dozens of statistically averaged variables that can impact turbulence. .”
The project is still in its early stages, so it could be years before the results appear on commercial aircraft. And in the meantime, an air of unpredictability remains a problem. According to the National Transportation Safety Board, 163 people seriously injured To ensure the safety of flight attendants and passengers, we may need to discontinue meal service on some flights, restrict passengers from standing up or use the restroom, and restrict access to flight attendants.
“I fly a lot and I see people walking around all the time, even when the seatbelt signs are on,” Duncan said. “Turbulence is tricky. It can happen suddenly, and you never know what kind of shear the aircraft will be exposed to.”
Alison Smith, Delta Air Lines’ managing director of mental health and well-being programs, said passengers are likely to avoid turbulent flights if they fly early in the morning or late at night. “These times of day generally have the least amount of turbulence,” she says.
At the end of the day, the most important thing passengers can do is listen to flight attendants and pay attention to seatbelt signs. At least for me, it stays buckled up while in the air.
Michelle Mastro A writer who covers lifestyle, travel, architecture, and culture.