Lawmakers return to the House on Monday to what is likely to be even more volatile than when they left in June.
The end of the governing agreement between the Liberal Party and the New Democrats makes an early election more likely But it’s not inevitable.
A party can remain in power as long as it has the “confidence” of the House of Representatives – that is, the support of a majority of its members.
If a government loses a key vote, called a “confidence” vote, it is deemed to have lost the confidence of Parliament. An election is usually held afterwards, but other parties can argue to the Governor-General that they have the confidence of Parliament and can govern. (The Liberal, New Democrat and Bloc parties have set themselves up to help the Governor-General win the election.) In 2008, he made such a claim..
A confidence motion would make governing in a minority parliament more difficult: the NDP had promised to support the Liberals in a confidence vote in exchange for progress on their policy priorities, but that support is no longer guaranteed.
What would have to happen in Ottawa to trigger an early election?
Traditional vote of confidence
Certain votes traditionally fall into the category of confidence because they relate explicitly to the business of governing.
A vote on a King’s Speech, which outlines the government’s priorities at the start of a new parliamentary term, is always considered a vote of confidence. The Liberals have already tabled a King’s Speech this parliament, and only have until the next election to table a new one. Prorogue Parliament and end the current session.
Major finance bills such as the budget, supplementary estimates or an autumn economic statement containing new spending are usually seen as a vote of confidence.
CBC’s Knowlton Nash takes a brief look back at the collapse of Joe Clark’s PC government.
Joe Clark’s short-lived Progressive Conservative government Defeated in the December 1979 budget voteThis meant Canadians had a second chance to vote in one year.
The next autumn economic statement is due to be published before the House of Representatives goes into winter recess in December. The next budget is not likely to be tabled until the spring.
Confidence motion
Most commonly, a vote of confidence takes place as a result of an opposition motion.
Each opposition party is allocated a certain number of “opposition days” or “opposition supply days”, on which opposition motions take priority over government business.
The government can declare any motion a vote of confidence. The Liberal Party did so in 2020. This comes as the opposition parties were pushing for an investigation into the government’s pandemic-related spending, including the WE scandal.
The opposition party can also make it clear through a motion that they have lost confidence in the government and call on other parties to join them in toppling it. Paul Martin Liberal Party 2005 and Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party in 2011.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poirierbre, speaking in Ottawa on Wednesday, said Prime Minister Jagmeet Singh and the New Democratic Party should “put their words into action” and call a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “as soon as possible.”
Conservative leader Pierre Poirievre has promised to table such a motion at the earliest opportunity. It is currently unclear when the Conservatives will next hold an opposition debate.
But Poirievre would need the support of the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois to force an election.
Since withdrawing from a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has said he will sit the next parliamentary sitting with a one-vote vote. Singh also said last week in response to the Conservative leader’s call for a motion of no confidence, “I will never listen to Pierre Poirievre.”
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he won’t heed the Conservative leader’s advice after being urged by Leader Pierre Poirievre to call a vote of no confidence in the Liberal government.
The Bloc Party doesn’t appear to be in any rush either. Its Speaker of the House of Commons Alain Therrien told The Canadian Press last week that he sees the end of the Liberal-New Democrat agreement as an opportunity for his party to gain more influence.
“Our goal is the same, but the means to get there will be much easier,” Therrien said. “We negotiate, we pursue Quebec’s interests. Our balance of power has definitely improved.”
The only way to hold an early election other than a vote of confidence would be for the Prime Minister to ask the Governor-General to dissolve Parliament earlier than scheduled.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau I did so in 2021Harper The same in 2008.
But with the Liberals trailing far behind the Conservatives in opinion polls, Trudeau is unlikely to be keen to call an early election.
Trudeau has insisted he is focused on governing rather than politics since his party’s agreement with the NDP ended.
“The reality is we’re all focused on what we need to do to make sure Canadians have support and can have confidence in the future,” the prime minister told a Liberal caucus meeting last week.
