When Donald J. Trump was the last president of the United States, the wealthy monarchies of the Persian Gulf had largely harmonious relations with his administration. As Trump prepares to return to the White House, Gulf leaders have generally welcomed his return.
But this time, Gulf states and Mr. Trump appear to be at odds on several important issues, including Israel and Iran. Differences over energy policy could also be a source of friction.
Major tensions and rifts with U.S. allies in the Gulf region are unlikely. But Trump will encounter a region that has seen dramatic changes since Israel launched the Gaza war in response to the Hamas-led offensive on Oct. 7, 2023. Israeli authorities say about 1,200 people were killed in the attack, with about 250 killed. taken hostage.
The war in Gaza has killed at least 45,000 people and is sending ripples across the region, according to health officials in the enclave. In Lebanon, the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah has been battered by more than a year of fighting with Israel. And in Syria, rebel forces overthrew Bashar al-Assad’s government.
Now, while Mr. Trump has filled his cabinet with Iranian hardliners and staunch defenders of Israel, Gulf leaders have publicly announced a softer stance toward Iran and a softer stance toward Israel. We are calling for a stronger stance.
They also urge the United States to remain engaged in the region.
So far, the Trump administration has shown an appetite for engagement with Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
In December, Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, traveled to the Emirati capital of Abu Dhabi to attend a Bitcoin conference with the president-elect’s son, Eric Trump. He also traveled to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Axios Reported.
Here’s a closer look at the challenges Mr. Trump faces as he moves forward with evolving relations with traditional Gulf allies.
Involvement in the Middle East
One of the clearest calls for Mr. Trump to avoid isolationist policies in the Gulf came from Crown Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former head of Saudi intelligence.
in Open letter to the next president of the United States published in November Prince Turki told the Abu Dhabi-based newspaper The National, referring to the assassination attempt on Trump, that he hoped “God spare your life” so that Trump could continue the work he started in the Middle East. He expressed his belief that the during his first term. Its mission, he wrote, was to bring “peace in capital letters.”
During his first term, the Trump administration brokered the Abraham Accords, which aimed at allowing several Arab countries to establish relations with Israel.
A similar message to Prince Turki was also issued by Anwar Gargash, an advisor to UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, at a conference in Abu Dhabi a few days later.
Gargash said U.S. leadership and partnership remain essential as the Gulf region becomes increasingly turbulent. “We need strong leadership that balances humanitarian concerns with strategic interests,” he said.
take a tougher stance on Israel
As for Israel, the most notable change in messaging in the Gulf region came from Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, the crown prince. At the recent Arab League summit in Riyadh, Prince Mohammed called for Israeli military action in Gaza for the first time. “Genocide.”
Just before the Gaza war broke out in October 2023, Saudi Arabia appeared to be on the brink of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel without achieving its long-standing precondition of establishing a Palestinian state. Such an agreement would have reshaped the Middle East.
Under one plan, Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in exchange for stronger defense ties with the United States and American support for Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear program.
However, recent statements from Prince Mohammed suggest that any agreement is a long way off.
In addition to the statement, which referred to the atrocities in the Gaza Strip, Saudi Arabia also vowed not to establish diplomatic relations with Israel until a Palestinian state is established. That remains a distant prospect, given the strong opposition to such a state within Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
“I think the crown prince wanted to make his position clear beyond doubt,” said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi businessman close to the kingdom’s ruling family.
The United Arab Emirates, a signatory to the Abraham Accords, has also shown signs of hardening its stance toward Israel.
UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed told his Israeli counterpart last week that the Emirates “will spare no effort in supporting the Palestinian people.”
Despite Saudi Arabia’s public stance on the status of the normalization deal, U.S. diplomats say the kingdom is privately open to moving forward with a normalization deal under a second term under President Trump. He suggested that this could be the case – conditional on a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and a concrete commitment from Israel towards normalization in the Strip. The road to a Palestinian state.
Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Wednesday that “when the opportunity for a ceasefire in Gaza and an understanding for a path forward for the Palestinians arises, we stand ready to take full advantage of it.” “So there’s a huge opportunity there.”
Easing tensions with Iran?
During Trump’s first term, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates defended his administration’s hawkish stance on Iran, viewing it as a dangerous rival in the region.
They cheered when Trump pulled the U.S. out of the nuclear deal with Iran, and he approved the January 2020 assassination of General Qassim Suleimani, who commanded Iranian militias and proxy forces across the Middle East. praised the decision.
But power dynamics in the region have changed since Trump’s first term.
Saudi Arabia and Iran reached an agreement in March 2023 to ease tensions in the Persian Gulf and open the door to high-level diplomatic contacts.
After years of tensions with Iran, Bahrain Request to the Iranian governmentKing Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa said there was “no reason to delay” resuming diplomatic relations. A small island kingdom condemned Last October, Israel targeted Iran, and a shadow war between the two countries erupted into the open with retaliatory strikes.
For Saudi Arabia, the goal is clear. The aim is to create a stable regional environment in order to realize Crown Prince Mohammed’s dream of diversifying the oil-dependent Saudi economy. For Iran, decades of economic and political isolation, combined with growing domestic unrest, have made reconciliation with Riyadh imperative.
There are also signs that Iran may be open to negotiations with Trump. A number of former Iranian officials, experts and newspaper editorials have publicly called for the government to engage with Trump.
So far, Trump has also seemed willing to chart a course different from the “maximum pressure” campaign of his first term, at least. Iranian officials said Trump’s close aide Elon Musk met with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in November.
In September, Trump referenced the threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons, saying, “There is no outcome, so we have to come to an agreement.”
Possibility of friction over oil
Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) appear positive about Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy, but it may be at odds with his economic policies.
A central promise of his campaign was to expand U.S. oil and gas production, a move that could hurt Gulf economies.
If the U.S. increases oil production as Trump has promised, there will be less room for Gulf producers to increase production without causing prices to fall.
“Increasing U.S. oil exploration and production will drive down prices and put the oil-driven economies of the Gulf region at risk,” said Bader Al-Saif, an associate research fellow at Chatham House, a London-based research institute. he stated in his paper. recent reports.
Trump is also expected to accelerate liquefied natural gas projects, reverse President Biden’s permitting freeze and increase exports to the United States, especially Europe.
Qatar, one of the biggest gas producers along with the United States, is likely to be most affected, but has so far ignored its concerns.
