A joint US and UK bombing raid against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen early Friday came in retaliation for weeks of attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea. The immediate question is: Is the United States heading toward war?
The attack represents a major escalation of US involvement in the Middle East amid Israel’s war in Gaza, and is perhaps the most dangerous escalation in a conflict that threatens to metastasize across the region. Just a few days ago, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: We have reached our fourth emergency situation. Three months later, the Middle East mission aims to contain spillovers from the ongoing conflict.
Some foreign policy and defense experts say the U.S. military response to the Houthis may fail to deter the battle-hardened group, which has emerged relatively unscathed from years of bombing by a coalition of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. He states that he has sex, and swears: The attacks must not stop until Israel completely ceases military operations in Gaza.
“The United States now finds itself in a situation where further military action is almost certain if the Houthis retaliate (or are likely to), and as a result, the cycle of retaliation could quickly get out of hand. Yes,” Daniel DePetris said. , a foreign affairs fellow at Defense Priorities, a think tank based in Washington, D.C., who advocates for a smaller global role for the U.S. military.
Whether this is a series of limited attacks or the beginning of a longer, more complex war, the timing could have far-reaching political implications in a US presidential election year.
Why are the Houthis attacking ships in the Red Sea?
There have been 27 attacks by the Houthis since November. These attacks are being framed as retaliation for Israel’s war in Gaza, which began after the October 7 Hamas attack.
Initial assessments of damage from the U.S.-led barrage of attacks on Yemeni strongholds used by Houthi militants to launch missiles and drones into commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea were positive, the Pentagon said.
The U.S. military supported these attacks with missiles fired from ships and submarines and airstrikes by U.S. and British fighter jets against Houthi strongholds that house drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and coastal radar stations. Several other countries also supported the attack.
Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Friday that “initial indications are that they have had a positive effect.” “We have not yet seen any retaliation by the Houthis.”
Still, the Houthis have vowed that the US and UK attacks will not go without “punishment or retaliation.”
Experts say it’s a risky promise that brings the United States and some Western allies ever closer to all-out war in the Middle East.
Trita Parsi of Washington, D.C., said, “If you bomb, it’s very likely that you’re going to escalate the problem. So not only will you not be able to stop the attacks, but you’re going to have a broader threat to what[Joe]Biden[President]Biden is trying to stop.” There is a high possibility that war will become a reality.” As the attack was underway, he was based at the Quincy Institute for Responsible States.
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“An attack on the Houthis will not work,” said Benjamin H. Friedman, policy director at Defense Priorities. “This means it is highly unlikely that a Houthi attack on shipping can be stopped.”
“The potential failure of the strike could lead to an escalation to more violent measures, which could also fail,” Friedman said.
Attacks on the Houthis in Yemen: What happened?
The United States and Britain, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand and South Korea, have bombed more than a dozen locations used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. They attacked the Houthis’ missile, radar, and drone infrastructure, limiting their ability to target international commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea.
US Air Force Middle East Command said it had struck more than 60 targets at 16 locations in Yemen, including “command and control nodes, ammunition depots, launch systems, production facilities, and air defense radar systems.”
a Houthi military spokesperson The airstrike killed at least five militants and injured six others, it said.
Is this a war?
The Biden administration stressed Friday that military action in the Middle East is not an all-out war.
“There is no war with the Houthis,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at an Air Force One briefing for reporters. “We are not calling for war in Yemen.”
“This was designed to confuse the Houthis and reduce their military capabilities,” Kirby said, adding that the impact of the attack was still being assessed.
Kirby also said the United States would continue to hold Iran accountable for “destabilizing activities” supporting the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas, but did not elaborate on specific plans.
Asked about the involvement of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who is still hospitalized, in planning the attack, Kirby said the attack was “seamless.”
“His participation was no different than any other day, except that he briefed the president on options and participated in discussions from the hospital,” he said.
Who are the Houthi rebels?
The Houthis are an armed group of Yemen’s Shiite Muslim minority.
They are part of Iran-backed militant groups in the Middle East that, along with Lebanon’s Hamas and Hezbollah, consider Israel, the United States and the West as enemies.
Following Hamas’ attack on Israel, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said his forces were “ready to move in the hundreds of thousands to join the Palestinian people and confront the enemy.” Stated.
The Houthis are trained, funded and militarily supported by Iran. They have been fighting a bitter war with Yemen’s internationally recognized government since 2014. The Houthis control northwestern Yemen and its capital, Sanaa.
One reason for Iran’s support for the Houthis is its longstanding hostility towards Saudi Arabia, which along with the United Arab Emirates has sought to restore Yemen’s government-in-exile. Although some progress has been made toward a peace settlement in recent years, it is temporary and fragile.
Waves of bombing by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates against the Houthis over the years have not proven effective in reducing their military strength. According to Thomas JuneauProfessor of International Relations at the University of Ottawa, Canada.
Britain and the US bomb the Houthis in Yemen. So?
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the strike was “limited, necessary and proportionate”. President Joe Biden warned of possible further measures to “protect our people and the freedom of international commerce.”
However, there was no indication that further bombings were planned soon.
For now, the proverbial ball is in the Houthi court.
Still, Mohammed al-Bukaiti, Houthi official, said both countries would “regret” their “foolishness.” “They will soon realize that directly invading Yemen was the biggest mistake in history,” he said.
And Houthi spokesman Mohamed Abdulsalam took a more direct approach, saying the group would continue to target ships heading to Israeli ports or passing through waterways.
In Iran, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Qanani told Telegram that the attack “will not result in more than inciting security and instability in the region.”
in written analysis Days before Friday’s retaliatory strikes by the United States and Britain, Gregory D. Johnsen, a Yemen expert at the Arab and Gulf States Institute in Washington, appeared to agree with that assessment.
“The Houthis remained undaunted even as the U.S. shot down drones and missiles and sunk ships,” he wrote. “What if the missile attacks were the same? What if instead of being deterred by U.S. airstrikes, the Houthis were actually emboldened?”
Faleah al-Muslimi, a Yemeni-born expert on the Middle East and North Africa at the London think tank Chatham House, said the Houthi strongholds targeted by the US and UK fit into the “broader context of Houthi arms and weapons. It’s really just peanuts in their eyes.” Military capabilities, especially maritime weapons. They are savvy, better prepared, and better equipped than anyone really realizes. ”
Al-Muslimi said the attack would not deter the Houthis from further attacks in the Red Sea.
If anything, it’s the opposite.
Contributed by Swapna Venugopal
