Lebanon’s deeply divided parliament will seek to elect a new president on Thursday, potentially ending a years-long political vacuum and bringing some stability to the country reeling from its bloodiest war in decades.
For more than two years, the small Mediterranean country has been paralyzed by political deadlock and gone through a series of upheavals, including a historic economic collapse, a devastating war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and the collapse of Lebanon. It has been led by a weak interim government. Assad regime in neighboring Syria.
Lebanon’s presidential election will be the first step towards establishing a full-fledged government tasked with stabilizing the country. But despite the urgency, it remains unclear whether anyone will be elected at all.
The country’s parliament is divided along sectarian lines, with lawmakers holding the last 12 elections to elect a new president since Michel Aoun resigned at the end of his six-year term in October 2022. He was voted out.
Thursday’s vote won’t change that. Lebanon faces diplomatic pressure from the United States and other foreign donors, whose postwar funding has hinged on presidential elections. But it is unclear whether the front-runner, US-backed Lebanese military commander Joseph Aoun (no relation to the former president), will win enough votes to win.
“This election essentially means Lebanon reaches a necessary milestone in its much-needed recovery,” said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House, a London-based research institute. Ta. “But the reality is that even at this critical juncture, Lebanon’s various political stakeholders are still far from the consensus needed to agree on who the next president will be.”
“The risks are higher than ever,” Khatib said.
The 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah has left large swathes of the country in ruins and left little funding for reconstruction. The World Bank estimates that the cost of war is: $8.5 billion in damages Alone. Lebanon’s security situation also remains precarious, with the eventual government needed to steer the country through a fragile 60-day ceasefire that diplomats hope will be permanent.
For more than two years, the impasse in Lebanon has paralyzed state institutions and worsened the country’s already devastating economic slump. Hezbollah, Lebanon’s dominant political force, has long been considered one of the main obstacles for many in the country. Last year, the group blocked an election without a vote to elect a senior official of the International Monetary Fund as Lebanon’s president.
But analysts say Israel’s lightning attack on Hezbollah, which has ousted the group’s leadership and shattered its image as a behemoth with national influence, is needed to break Lebanon’s political deadlock. He says that it has the potential to provide significant opportunities.
Heading into the next election, Hezbollah appears to be showing signs of flexibility, but it remains to be seen how the vote will turn out. Wafik Safa, the group’s executive director, said on Sunday that he would not veto Aoun’s candidacy, as many had feared.
“They calculate that they still have a lot of power, but they’re going to have to make some concessions,” said Paul Salem, deputy director for international engagement at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “Right now they need massive, massive foreign aid. They also need a legitimate state to exist within and protect themselves.”
“The first fundamental is electing a president,” Salem said.
The 128 members of Lebanon’s parliament elect the president by secret ballot, a process that has been marred by strikes in recent years. The first vote would require a two-thirds majority vote, but analysts said the result was unlikely to be released on Thursday. However, in subsequent rounds a simple majority is sufficient.
If the president is elected on Thursday, he will appoint a prime minister, who will be tasked with forming a government, in consultation with parliament. It is likely to be a long process, and the resulting executive body will ultimately be tasked with the daunting task of rebuilding the crisis-stricken country.
Parliament Speaker Navi Berri, a key Hezbollah ally, said in an interview with local media last week that he was determined to elect a president on Thursday. He promised to continue accepting votes until a candidate is agreed upon.
But Berri acknowledged there was still no consensus on who that candidate would be, a departure from previous elections where stakeholders typically reach an informal agreement before voting. did.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, the beleaguered face of the country’s transitional government, struck an optimistic tone Wednesday amid mounting uncertainty.
“Today, for the first time since the presidential seat became vacant, I feel happy,” he said in a statement. “If it is God’s will, tomorrow we will have a new president of the republic.”
