For decades, Syria has been Iran’s closest Arab ally in the Middle East, while the wealthy Persian Gulf monarchies have been embroiled in competition with Tehran for power and influence across the region.
The sudden overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad prompted his close ally Iran to retreat. This is an opportunity for the Gulf states to fill a gap and develop ties with the new Damascus government.
The two main Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are dominated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main rebel faction that has taken control of much of Syria, which has turned to Islamist and once militant Because he was working with the sect, he is taking a cautious approach. Al Qaeda group.
The two Gulf states have spent much of the past two decades countering al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Muslim Brotherhood, and halting the rise of political Islamist groups across the Middle East.
Gulf states have publicly stated that Syria’s new leaders must demonstrate acceptance and tolerance of the country’s diverse sects before receiving political and financial support.
Anwar Gargash, a foreign affairs adviser to the Emirati president, recently said the nature of the rebels and past ties to al-Qaeda were cause for concern.
“I think these are all very worrying indicators,” Gargash told a conference in the Emirati capital Abu Dhabi in mid-December, shortly after the rebel takeover. “We have had cases like this before in this area, so we need to be cautious.”
Gulf states have long worried that the expansion of Islamist groups in the Middle East could destabilize their authoritarian governments. The outbreak of the Arab Spring across the Middle East in 2011 toppled several dictatorships and powerful Islamist groups emerged to fill the vacuum in countries such as Tunisia and Egypt.
“The UAE has a long history of being particularly hostile to Islamist parties and governments,” said Anna Jacobs, senior Gulf analyst at the nonprofit International Crisis Group. “But at least so far, the UAE has sent very clear signals that it is ready to work with the transitional government to maintain stability in Syria and the wider region.”
Gulf states’ concerns about Islamic groups date back to the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York. Most of the 19 hijackers were Saudi nationals, influenced by the kingdom’s strict form of Islam, Wahhabi, which some have accused of fomenting intolerance and terrorism. Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has since reined in the power of religious clerics.
After Egypt’s Arab Spring revolutions, voters elected Mohammed Mursi from the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood as president. However, in 2013, he was ousted in a coup sponsored by the United Arab Emirates.
And alarm over Syria’s Islamists is felt not only in the Gulf states but also in other regional powers, including Egypt.
Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, who replaced Morsi as Egypt’s general in 2013, has since spent years stamping out the Brotherhood in the country, viewing it as a threat to his power. There is.
In mid-December, El-Sissi made a rare appearance before journalists, hinting at his nervousness over events in Syria. He seemed to be drawing a contrast between himself and Mr. al-Assad.
“By the grace of God, there are two things I have never done: My hands have never been stained with anyone’s blood, and I have never taken anything that is not mine. “Never,” he said.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have staunchly opposed the Assad regime since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. Mr. al-Assad has become a pariah in the region and beyond for his brutal crackdown on opponents, including the use of chemical weapons against his own people.
Gulf states closed their embassies in Syria in early 2012 amid Assad’s crackdown on dissidents. Over the years, there appears to have been a shift in al-Assad’s attitude toward the Gulf states as he regained control of large parts of his country with significant military support from Russia and Iran.
Two Gulf states played important roles. Return Al Assad to Arab territory After 10 years of isolation. The thaw at the time was driven by a desire for Arab unity to counter growing Iranian influence in Syria and across the Middle East.
After the devastating earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria in early 2023, the Saudi leadership provided humanitarian aid to al-Assad. At a milestone later that year, Syria’s leaders were allowed to rejoin the Arab League.
The engagement with al-Assad’s regime was a tacit acknowledgment that, despite Western-backed efforts to oust him, his political survival had become a reality that could no longer be ignored.
The shift in attitude in the Gulf while Mr al-Assad was still in control of Syria was part of a broader regional realignment as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates began re-engaging with Iran.
Under Syria’s new leadership, the economic opportunities of post-conflict reconstruction, which were of interest during Mr. al-Assad’s time in power, will also be part of Gulf states’ assessments.
With the country’s infrastructure crumbling, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates stand to benefit from reconstruction efforts if they can negotiate favorable terms with the new government in Damascus.
Securing a role in Syria’s reconstruction also offers another way to influence the country’s future.
Qatar, in particular, seems willing to support the Syrian interim government.
Qatar maintained contacts with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other Islamic rebel groups in Syria during the war. 2015, Qatar brokered a prisoner exchange transaction between the rebels and the Lebanese army.
When Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain severed diplomatic ties with Qatar in 2017, one of them was Qatar. Request for relationship repair The plan was for Qatar to end support for Jabhat al-Nusra, the predecessor of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
At the Arab League Summit held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in 2023, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani left the meeting before Al-Assad’s speech and expressed his country’s position. Showed.
After President Assad stepped down, Qatar sent its foreign minister, a high-ranking government official from the Gulf state, to Damascus in late December to meet with the transitional government. This was followed by a visit by the Chairman of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Kuwait’s Foreign Minister earlier this week.
Ahmed al-Shara, the rebel leader who led the attack to topple al-Assad, said the Qataris would receive priority in aid over the past decade, perhaps undermining the Gulf emirate’s role in the reconstruction project. He said it may have been implied.
The Qatari delegation was accompanied by a technical team from Qatar Airways, who provided technical support for the reopening of Damascus International Airport.
“Qatar has special priority in Syria because of its honorable attitude towards the Syrian people,” Al-Shara told reporters.
Rania Khalid and Vivian Yee I contributed a report from Cairo.
