According to a US think tank, the Kremlin is concerned about the political impact of war dissatisfaction in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election.
Support for the war in Ukraine has hit rock bottom in Russia, according to recent polls.
The number of Russians who fully support an invasion has nearly halved since February 2023, according to independent pollster Chronicle.
Their survey found that those in favor of peace far outnumber those calling for war, and that more Russians support the withdrawal of their troops from Ukraine than those who do not. Ta.
Commenting on the findings, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Friday that the Kremlin “may be concerned about how changing attitudes toward war could affect Russia’s 2024 presidential election.” There is,” he said.
A US-based think tank has claimed that President Vladimir Putin will center his re-election campaign on “questions of internal stability in Russia and growing criticism of the West, rather than focusing on war”.
Opinion polls are notoriously difficult to conduct in authoritarian countries like Russia. The Kremlin criminalizes criticism of the war and spends millions of dollars on pro-war propaganda, which means it may not reflect the reality of the situation.
But Chronicles, founded by Russian opposition politician Alexei Miniailo, says its survey provides an accurate snapshot of public opinion.
The Moscow-based research group asked 1,199 adults across Russia a series of questions in a telephone poll from October 17th to 22nd.
It found that the number of core war supporters, those who express “consistent” support for the war and want the invasion to continue until the objective is achieved, increased from 22% in February 2023 to 22% in October 2023. decreased to 12%.
A Chronicles poll found that 40% of Russians support withdrawing troops from Ukraine without the war objectives being achieved. This number has been consistent throughout his 2023.
Thirty-three percent oppose Ukraine’s withdrawal and want the war to continue, but this number has steadily declined from 47% in February to 39% in July.
One reason for the decline in support for the war may be that the Russian public increasingly supports it. I feel the pinch and see an even darker future. As other studies have shown, this is due to the aftermath of the invasion.
A Chronicle poll similarly found that 44% of respondents had experienced a decrease in household income.
President Putin this week announced a major increase in military spending, announcing that by 2024 around 30% of the state budget will be devoted to the military.
The survey also revealed how the situation is affecting people’s lives.
More than half of Russia’s population (52%) has recently faced anxiety or depression, compared to about a third (32%) as of March 2022.
Low-income groups were more likely to report negative psychological effects.
