TOP SHOT – A fighter jet fires at Syrian army troops in the Rashidin neighborhood on the outskirts of Aleppo, November 29, 2024.
Bakr Alkasem | AFP | Getty Images
The more than 50-year-old Assad dynasty dictatorship was on the brink of collapse on Sunday after rebels seized control of the capital Damascus in a blitzkrieg that took control of the country’s largest city within days.
The government’s defense forces, backed by Russia and Iran, are struggling to halt a rebel advance that began last week with a rapid clearing of the northern city of Aleppo, breaking a years-long stalemate. The attack was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamic extremist group listed as a terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations Security Council, and its allies, who expanded their operations into the south of the country. There is. They also captured the major cities of Hama and Deir Ezzor.
“We declare the city of Damascus liberated from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad,” HTS senior commander Hassan Abdulghani said in a WhatsApp post. “To all the displaced people of the world, a free Syria awaits you.”
CNBC could not independently verify the status of the ground development.
The whereabouts of President Bashar al-Assad, who took office in 2000 after the death of his father Hafez, were unknown. Multiple media reports, which CNBC could not independently confirm, said he had fled Damascus.
Syrian Prime Minister Ghazi al-Jalali said he remained at home and was ready to support the continuation of Syria’s rule.
“Syria belongs to all Syrians, all its people, and this country can become a normal state with good relations with its neighbors without joining any regional alliance or bloc,” he said, according to NBC News. I believe that,” he said. Report. “This issue is in the hands of the leaders chosen by the Syrian people and we stand ready to cooperate with them by providing all possible facilitation.”
White House National Security Council Press Secretary Sean Savet said several countries had evacuated their embassies amid the Damascus conflict, and outgoing US President Joe Biden was “closely monitoring” the situation and The company says it maintains contact with its partners.
Distracted Ally
The advance into Damascus came after the insurgents arrived in Homs, the country’s third-largest city and a choke point between rebel-held areas and the capital. Retaining Homs will be a major challenge for the rebels. The rebels will need to confront the concentration of government forces and gain support from local pro-Assad Alawite communities, said Qutayba Idolbi, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. I wrote December 5th.
“More importantly, the rebels advancing towards Homs will test Russia’s red lines in Syria. and has not provided full-scale military support to protect Assad’s defenses,” Idolbi added. “Russia has carried out airstrikes in Idlib and Aleppo to counter rebel advances, but has not been directly involved in Hama. This restraint reflects Kremlin strategic calculations to avoid overreach. There is.”
Syria has been rocked by a 13-year civil war that began with pro-democracy demonstrations against repressive government rule in March 2011, alongside similar regional uprisings during the Arab Spring. Assad’s regime responded to protests in Syria with deadly force, resulting in growing calls for Assad’s resignation, nationwide unrest and a rise in opposition. Separate peace negotiations between the United Nations, Russia, Iran, and Turkey have yet to bear fruit.
The escalation in Syria comes as Assad’s allies Russia and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are increasingly preoccupied with fighting on their home fronts with Ukraine and Israel, respectively. The unrest in Syria has exacerbated a broader conflict in the Middle East, which began with a terrorist attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Israel in October 2023, and which has led to a retaliatory military campaign by ethnic Jews in the Gaza Strip and led to a gunfight. Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Iran.
“This lightning attack marks a monumental shift in the Syrian conflict and highlights the regime’s fundamental weaknesses.” I wrote Natasha Hall, a senior fellow in the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, added that while Israel’s military offensive “has significantly weakened Assad’s allies Iran and Hezbollah, it has disrupted the fragile stalemate.” , “Russia is mired in Ukraine and there is violence in Georgia.”
Markets are watching for signs that military developments could impact supplies in the oil-rich Middle East region and further trade disruptions on key trade routes.
