Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberals have time on their hands and cannot afford to waste it.

When Justin Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party of Canada on April 14, 2013, he took charge of the smallest caucus in the party’s history, consisting of 35 members. 24 of these MPs supported him during the leadership campaign.

Some 4,210 days later, the Liberal caucus met for its usual Wednesday morning meeting. There, the Prime Minister was told that 24 MPs believed it was time for him to resign.

In 2013, 20 MPs would have made up a full two-thirds of the Liberal caucus, but the fact that they now make up just one-sixth of the current caucus means that for the past 11 years It is a testament to the party’s success under Prime Minister Trudeau’s leadership over the years.

But it remains a blow to the prime minister, who was already trailing in the opinion polls and faced the difficult task of winning a fourth mandate.

This is perhaps also a reminder of how the party found itself on the brink in 2013 when it switched to Prime Minister Trudeau.

In his autobiography, Common Ground, Prime Minister Trudeau writes, “During his 10 years in power, in the face of a divided opposition, his party was one of the few Canadians who supported it, elected it, and had faith in it.” Instead, the focus has shifted to the party itself.” The Liberals claimed they had “earned” the “condemnation” they received from Canadians.

The Liberals seem very focused on themselves right now. Therefore, it seems very likely that it will receive further unpopularity.

What does the objection amount to?

24 votes against the Prime Minister in a caucus of 152 MPs is clearly not decisive – especially since some of the 24 MPs still publicly vote against the Prime Minister. Especially if they don’t want to reveal their true identity.

The official tally of opposition members is also lower than the rumored 30 or 40. (One might have thought that would-be rebels would have learned something from their own government’s tendency to inflate expectations.)

The opposition has given the prime minister until next week to make a decision on his future departure, suggesting they are prepared to increase pressure on Trudeau in some way. But the fact that they did not specify what the consequences would be if Trudeau did not meet that deadline makes it even more difficult to determine how seriously to take this insurrection. There is.

The prime minister is not yet in a position to dismiss critics lightly. The possibility of 20 MPs revolting would pose a serious problem for Canada’s political leaders. Such public dissent is relatively rare in this country.

Prime Minister Trudeau once aspired to the Liberal MP being a voice for Ottawa’s communities. But among those voices, in the words of Liberal MP Sean Casey, “people have had enough.”

“They’re ignoring him and want him to go away,” Casey said. said Last week on CBC’s Power & Politics.

1 month ago Liberal MP Alexandra Mendez reported Similar impressions.

“It’s a very common thing… like, ‘We’re sick of his face,'” she said.

That fatigue is not surprising. Prime Minister Trudeau has been prime minister for almost nine years and is the very public face of the federal government. Even if the past few years had been completely uneventful, the Prime Minister would still be battling some degree of fatigue. And Trudeau has spent the past four years governing through a global pandemic, stubborn inflation and high interest rates.

But in a recent conversation with Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Trudeau wanted to turn the idea of ​​fatigue on its head, arguing that familiarity can breed trust as well as contempt. It seemed like it was.

“Some people may disagree with me on this or that or other things, but they know the framework I’m working in, and they know what drives me and what works for me. We know how important that is, and it’s not something that can be easily ignored,” Trudeau said.

“The idea of ​​knowing someone’s values ​​and knowing the framework in which they approach an issue is not only important, but at the end of the day, when you’re choosing a representative, when you’re choosing a prime minister, that’s the only thing that matters. .”

These comments could also serve as a rebuttal to the Liberal Party’s untested policy choices. little known Alternative. For the Liberal Party, there is some risk that the leadership contest will create new divisions (or exacerbate existing tensions within the Liberal caucus).

Clearly, some members of the Liberal caucus feel this is a risk worth taking.

Another “solid” discussion among “family members”

The Liberal Party has a long and illustrious history of aspiring to other leaders. The infamy and damage from that history was so great that Prime Minister Trudeau vowed to turn the page on the era of .hyphenated liberalAnd the lack of a clear and unambiguous alternative to Trudeau – someone else around whom a significant group of Liberals are prepared to rally around – may still dampen appetite for change.

But signs of Liberal unrest date back to at least the summer of 2023, when the government’s poll numbers first began to fluctuate seriously. When Liberal MPs gathered in London, Ont. That September, Concerns were aired behind closed doors. (And the details were quickly leaked to reporters).

Liberals from the London meeting said there had been “robust” discussions among “the family”. Some of them said the same thing Wednesday, more than 13 months later.

In this case, several Liberals said they were united in their determination to prevent Conservative leader Pierre Poièvre from becoming prime minister. And while that may seem like a bare minimum requirement for membership in the Liberal caucus, it may have some value in focusing the Liberal party’s mind.

But at the moment it is clear that it is not the Liberal government’s only focus, or perhaps even its biggest focus.

The lesson of the 2011 federal election, and the vote that reduced Prime Minister Trudeau’s party to just 30 MPs, is that even if the Liberal Party was once seen as a “natural government,” its success or even survival is not guaranteed. It was said that it was not. party of this country.” And according to Trudeau himself, that decline was directly attributable to the party turning inward, its own infighting, disagreements, and intraparty competition.

Even if that’s a slightly oversimplified explanation of how the Liberal Party came to the brink of political death, a party that depletes itself is at risk of losing Canadians, or at least losing the next election. There is certainly some truth to the idea of ​​being exposed.

WATCH: Minister calls Trudeau’s ouster ‘garbage’

Immigration minister calls efforts to oust Trudeau ‘garbage’

Immigration Minister Mark Miller says the time focused on efforts by some Liberal MPs to oust Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is being spent “on Pierre Poièvre and what he wants to do for this country.” “It’s a time when we don’t have time.” Miller said Trudeau has the support of “the vast majority of the caucus” and the entire cabinet.

“Every minute spent on this garbage is a minute not spent on Pierre Poièvre and what he wants to do for this country, and I think that’s very dangerous,” Immigration Minister Marc Miller said Tuesday. Ta.

Rebels in the caucus may have been outraged by Mr. Miller’s use of the word “trash,” but he may have been specifically referring to the cloak-and-dagger leaks and assaults of the past two weeks. However, it may be difficult for liberals to disagree with Miller’s remaining ideas.

What happens next is not clear. But for this generation of Liberals, their time left in power, or at least to make their case for re-election, may be measured in days or even weeks. With less than a year until the next fixed election date, no one in Ottawa probably thinks this parliament will go that far.

And if time is at a premium, the Liberals have every reason to avoid blaming themselves any more than necessary.