When Donald J. Trump won his return to the White House, many countries thought they knew what was coming and how to prepare for what was to come.
Diplomats in the world’s capitals said they would focus on the Trump administration’s actions, not what Mr. Trump said. Greater powers made plans to soften or counter his threat of punitive tariffs. Smaller countries had hoped to escape four more years of America First.
But it is becoming increasingly difficult for the world to keep calm and carry on.
At a press conference Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago, Trump declined to rule out the possibility of using force in a potential land grab for Greenland and the Panama Canal. He vowed to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.” He also said that as a matter of U.S. national security, “economic power” could be used to make Canada the 51st state.
To those who wanted to understand the substance of the rant, it looked like another performance of bravado sprinkled with. The Trump II sequel is less restrained. Even before he took office, Trump has caused a stir with an astonishing wish list. “here we go again” Comments from all over the world.
But there are serious risks beyond the chatter. As the world prepares for the return of President Trump, the parallels between his concerns and the distant era of American imperialism in the late 19th century are becoming more real.
Mr. Trump has already defended the era of protectionism, claiming that the United States in the 1890s was “probably the wealthiest in history because of the tariff system.” Now he appears to have added a focus on territorial control in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
What both eras have in common is the fear of geopolitical instability and the threat of being locked out of territories of great economic and military importance. “We are witnessing a return to a more unstable world,” said Daniel Imavaar, an American historian at Northwestern University.
For Mr. Trump, China is looming and, in his view, ready to seize territory far from its own borders. He falsely accused China of controlling the U.S.-built Panama Canal. There is also a more grounded illusion that China and its ally Russia are working to secure control of the Northern Sea Route and valuable minerals.
At the same time, competition is intensifying everywhere as some countries (India, Saudi Arabia) rise while others (Venezuela, Syria) are forced to spiral, creating openings for outside influence to enter. There is.
In the 1880s and 1990s, there were also struggles for control and no single dominant state. As countries became more powerful, they were expected to grow physically, and competition rewrote maps and sparked conflicts from Asia to the Caribbean.
When the United States annexed Guam and Puerto Rico in 1898, it reflected European colonial designs. However, in large countries like the Philippines, the United States has opted for indirect control by negotiating deals to advance preferential treatment for American businesses and military interests.
Some see Trump’s obsession with Greenland, the Panama Canal, and even Canada as a single-handed revival of the debate over the pursuit of expansionism.
“This is part of a pattern in which the United States controls, or seeks to control, areas of the globe deemed to be of U.S. interest, without invoking the scary words ’empire,’ ‘colonial,’ and ‘imperialism.’ “It’s extracting material benefits,” said Ian Tyrrell, a historian of the American empire at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.
Trump’s threat to take over territory may just be a starting point for a deal or some kind of personal desire. The United States already has an agreement with Denmark that allows it to operate bases in Greenland.
His Americanization proposals at home and abroad are seen by many diplomats and scholars as an escalation rather than a break with the past. For years, the United States has sought to rein in China’s ambitions with a familiar strategy.
The Philippines is in the spotlight again, with a new agreement on bases that the US military can use in a potential war with China. As climate change melts ice and makes navigation easier, so too do the most important shipping routes for trade around Asia and the North Pole.
“What the United States has always wanted was access to markets, lines of communication, and the ability to predict the future of material power,” Professor Tyrrell said.
But especially in some areas, the past as a prelude evokes fear.
Panama and its neighbors tend to see Mr. Trump’s comments as a blend of both the 1890s and the 1980s, when, in the wake of the Cold War, the U.S. government used the pretext of fighting communism to support large numbers of people in Central and South America. They were interfering with other countries. The Monroe Doctrine, another 19th-century creation in which the United States treated the Western Hemisphere as its exclusive sphere of influence, is resurfacing in relevance alongside tariffs and territorial agreements.
Carlos Puig, a popular columnist in Mexico City, said Latin America was more worried about Trump’s return than the rest of the world.
“Trump, who has been complaining for four years and now has a majority in both houses of Congress, is a man who is only thinking about himself and only thinking about winning at all costs,” Puig said. Ta. “It’s not easy for a guy like that to not show that he’s willing to deliver on his promises, no matter how crazy they are. It’s all just a tease, an almost comical provocation. I don’t know if there is.”
But how much good or damage can Mr. Trump actually do?
His press conference in Florida was a mix of vague threats (“We might have to do something”) and messianic promises (“I’m talking about defending the free world”). .
This was enough to wake up the rest of the world, and drew enthusiastic attention and resistance even before he took office.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrault warned on Wednesday against threatening France’s “sovereign borders.” european union —Refers to Greenland, a territory of Denmark. “The era of survival of the fittest has arrived,” he added.
It may be hard to see from Mar-a-Lago, but what is often discussed in foreign capital is that many countries are simply tired of Trump’s desire to be great again.
The United States remains a dominant power, but its influence has declined compared to the 1980s and 1890s. This is not only because of China’s rise, but also because of its rapid economic growth, in addition to the fact that many countries see the United States itself as dysfunctional and in debt. Development by other countries.
After World War II, the international system the United States helped establish was strong enough to prioritize trade in hopes of deterring conquest and create a path to prosperity that weakened the effectiveness of American unilateralism. It worked.
Saran Sidor, director of the Global South Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible States and Strategy in Washington, said that many developing countries “despite the decline in U.S. predictability and stability. , smarter, more proactive, and more capable.”
In other words, the world is unstable today. The post-war equilibrium has been shaken by wars in Europe and the Middle East. Through an authoritarian partnership between China, Russia, and North Korea. By a weakened Iran seeking nuclear weapons. And due to climate change and artificial intelligence.
The end of the 19th century was also a turbulent time. The mistake Mr. Trump may be making now, historians say, is thinking he can pacify and simplify the world by adding more American real estate.
The protectionist, imperialist era that Trump seems to be glorifying exploded as Germany and Italy tried to push for a bigger share of the world. As a result, two world wars occurred.
“We’ve seen what happens to 20th-century weapons,” said Imarvar, author of “How to Hide an Empire: A History of the Greater United States.” “The 21st could potentially be even more dangerous.”
