As far as the first salvo goes, President Donald J. Trump’s threat to impose 10% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China’s role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis could be interpreted as encouraging in Beijing. be.
This was not only lower than the 60% tariffs that Trump had promised to impose on key Chinese goods during his campaign, but it was another confirmation that the president is willing to negotiate with China. In his first two days in office, Trump also floated the idea of tying tariffs to TikTok’s fate. He said he was looking forward to an invitation to China.
Trump’s willingness to do business with China could give Beijing much-needed time and space to address its most pressing needs. That includes attempts to revive the stagnant economy and ease tensions with trading partners over China’s record trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion. The Chinese government is also working to mend relations with China. American allies like Japan It seeks to undermine the security alliance that the Biden administration has built to rein in China.
Progress on these fronts will help strengthen China’s position in the intense superpower competition with the United States. Beijing ultimately wants the Trump administration to reset relations. The party argues that the United States should remove restrictions on imports of American technology from China, end support for Taiwan, an autonomous island claimed by the Chinese government, and accept China as an equal power. .
Beijing calculated that it could placate Mr. Trump, perhaps by selling TikTok, cracking down on fentanyl precursor producers, or revamping the trade deal that Mr. Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed in 2020. analysts said.
Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said, “From an economic perspective, it would be a good idea for the U.S. and China to come up with some kind of quasi-grand deal that meets the pressing political needs of both sides without sacrificing too much.” It will be beneficial.” the study.
It’s unclear where Trump, who considers unpredictability to be his signature weapon, stands on these issues. The US president is surrounded by advisers with contrasting views on China. Just last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during his Senate confirmation hearing that China is the “greatest threat” to American prosperity. But one of Trump’s billionaire advisers, Tesla tycoon Elon Musk, has vast business interests in China and has sided with China in international disputes (such as Taiwan).
Trump’s first day back quickly highlighted early differences between the Biden and Trump administrations in their response to China. While the previous administration favored sanctions and alliances to shape the global environment around China, President Trump uses tariffs as part of a carrot-and-stick strategy to achieve his domestic “America First” goals. It seems like that’s the intention.
China is thought to welcome this new approach, at least for now, as long as it remains open to trying to avoid a full-blown trade war. The country’s economy is already facing a deepening slump caused by a real estate crisis, rising government debt and weak consumer spending.
China’s economic challenges mean its negotiating position is weaker than it was during the first Trump administration. But the Chinese government now also has more tools to fight back.
In recent months, China has restricted U.S. access to critical minerals, investigated U.S. companies including PVH for boycotting Xinjiang cotton, and sanctioned Skydio, a U.S. drone maker that supplies the Ukrainian military. This indicates that they are prepared to take new retaliatory measures, such as
“China is ready to go either way. They are ready to fight and negotiate,” said Kennedy, who tried to gauge the mood in China during a two-week stay in the country after the U.S. presidential election. Ta.
The first big test of how U.S.-China relations will fare under President Trump’s second term could center on the future of Chinese social media app TikTok in the United States.
Trump signed an executive order on Monday delaying the ban on the platform. He suggested that the Chinese government should approve a deal to split ownership of the app with American buyers or face tariffs as high as 100 percent.
“If President Trump can strike a deal that addresses national security concerns while keeping the apps alive, he will be hailed as a hero by young voters,” said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. speaks. Washington. If ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, “doesn’t give in, we can blame China as a barrier to progress.”
A compromise on TikTok may be acceptable to China. The app is not what China considers strategic, cutting-edge technology, like the AI chips and supercomputing capabilities that Mr. Xi covets to make the country more powerful and self-sufficient. China opposed the sale of TikTok in 2023, but appears to have softened its stance in recent days, saying through a Foreign Ministry spokesperson that acquisitions should follow “market principles” and “China’s laws and regulations.” said.
China has also sought to remind Trump of China’s geopolitical influence. On Tuesday, Mr. Xi held a video call with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, with whom the two have developed a strong bond as dictators battling Western pressure. Xi said the two countries should “deepen strategic cooperation, provide solid mutual support, and protect legitimate interests.”
The call highlighted Beijing’s influence over Russia as Trump has expressed a desire to end the fighting in Ukraine. Separately, Trump’s inauguration was attended by Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, who signaled lasting unity between Xi and Putin.
“Xi wants to cover all his bases,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “He wants to show President Trump that China is still cornering Russia.”
Mr. Xi has so far sought to build a positive relationship with Mr. Trump, expressing hope in a phone call with Mr. Trump on Friday that relations between the two countries would get off to a “good start” under the new administration.
But he also took a hard line on China concerns, urging Trump to treat Taiwan’s status with care. In 2016, Trump responded to a phone call from then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, prompting criticism from China.
But some of Trump’s decisions are already having an impact on China’s broader global ambitions to reshape the world order to give Beijing more voice. Mr. Trump’s move to withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization and the United Nations’ Paris Climate Agreement, and his stance to alienate partner countries such as Mexico and Canada with 25% tariffs, are wrong. It is in China’s long-term interests.
Still, Chinese analysts said the Chinese government was acting very cautiously. They feel China was burnt out when, at the beginning of Trump’s first term, he invited Xi to Mar-a-Lago, where they ate cake and wore talismans. A year later, relations began a steady decline to their worst level since diplomatic relations were normalized in the 1970s.
Wu Xinbo, director of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, said Trump is “trying to resolve the issue in a non-confrontational manner at first, but he will definitely negotiate more, so we should be prepared.” I need to keep it,” he said. Shanghai.
Qiao Shiyi Contributed to research.
