President-elect Donald J. Trump said Tuesday that “hell is going to break out in the Middle East” if hostages held by Hamas are not released by Inauguration Day, speaking at a wide-ranging news conference at the presidential palace. Mar-a-Lago Estates in Florida, where the threat was repeated four times.
“If they don’t come back by the time I take office, there will be hell in the Middle East,” he told reporters. “And that’s not good for Hamas, and frankly it’s not good for anyone. All hell is going to break out. I don’t need to say any more, but it is what it is.”
Trump did not elaborate on what action he might take if the hostages are not released by the time he takes office. He also declined to provide details about what he and his advisers are doing in the days leading up to the inauguration. Officials say about 100 hostages are still being held in Gaza, including some Americans captured on October 7, 2023, but many died while in captivity. I think it’s possible.
“They should never have taken it away,” Trump told reporters. “The attacks on October 7 should never have happened. People forget about it. But in reality, many people were killed.”
President Biden and his national security aides have been negotiating for months to free the remaining hostages. A deal seemed imminent several times, but Biden administration officials said it fell apart after Hamas negotiators refused. Israeli officials also oppose some parts of the proposed deal.
In his remarks, Trump suggested that his threats against Hamas would weaken it. But Middle East experts struggled to understand the meaning of Trump’s threat.
“He and I know nothing,” said Daniel C. Kurtzer, who served as U.S. ambassador to Israel during the George W. Bush administration.
Over the past 15 months, the Israeli military has nearly annihilated Hamas as an organized fighting force. It is unclear what further the incoming Trump administration or an escalation of attacks by Israel could accomplish.
“I can’t imagine a scenario in which U.S. forces would engage. In any case, we don’t have as good an idea as Israel about what would give Hamas coercion,” Kurzer added. “Routing is the worst form of policy.”
Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator, said it was unclear what Mr. Trump could do if the hostages were not released by the deadline. He also questioned whether Trump would be able to persuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to come to a deal.
“Trump will never be able to inflict more pain on Hamas and the Palestinians than Israel is already inflicting,” Miller said. “He certainly has influence over Prime Minister Netanyahu, but will he really use that to pressure Israel to agree to terms of the deal that seem favorable to Hamas?”
At one point Tuesday, the president-elect invited Steve Witkoff, who he plans to appoint as special envoy to the Middle East, to speak with reporters. Witkoff said negotiators are “making great progress” but declined to elaborate.
“I don’t want to say too much because I think they’re doing a really good job,” Witkoff said. “I sincerely hope that we can make some good announcements on behalf of the president before Inauguration Day.”
Witkoff appeared to praise the Biden administration’s efforts, saying, “I actually believe we’re working very well together.” But he also singled out Trump, saying the president-elect’s “stature” and “what is driving this negotiation are the red lines he has laid out that cannot be crossed.”
Witkoff added that he was “leaving tomorrow” to return to Doha, where Israeli and Hamas delegations are negotiating through Qatari intermediaries. It is unclear what role, if any, Mr. Witkoff played in these talks.
The reality of a change of administration in the United States complicates last-ditch efforts by Mr. Biden and his advisers to reach an agreement to release the hostages. Families of those still detained are urging Biden and Trump officials to work together toward that goal.
Biden national security officials said they have kept Trump’s side fully informed about the negotiations. And members of both teams appear aligned toward the same goal: using the Inauguration Day deadline to pressure Hamas to release everyone it holds.
However, if his release were to occur, there is a strong possibility that opinions between the two administrations would be sharply divided as to who deserves praise.
Tuesday’s comments by Mr. Trump and Mr. Witkoff appear to have been designed, at least in part, to allow the president-elect to claim credit if he is released shortly before his inauguration. Witkoff told reporters that he thinks Hamas is listening to Trump.
“He is encouraging us to speak clearly and emphasizing that we better understand it, we better do it,” he said, adding that Hamas is not waiting for Trump to take office. Ta. “I think they heard him loud and clear. We’d better get this done before Inauguration Day.”
Biden aides said Witkoff and the Biden administration’s chief negotiator, Brett McGurk, have been speaking regularly and that the discussions have been “constructive” and “appropriate.” McGuirk has been leading negotiations to reach an agreement between the two sides.
This contact “suggests that the Biden-Trump team is much more aligned than, say, the Obama-Trump team in late 2016 and early 2017,” said Natan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. said.
But Biden officials maintain that progress toward a deal is the result of months of painstaking discussions and heavy Israeli shelling of Hamas.
Israel’s bombing of Gaza (which has killed tens of thousands of people and has drawn intense scrutiny from around the world) has severely damaged Hamas, which has led to a number of leaders including Yahya Sinwar and the mastermind behind the October 7 attack. killed most of the people. Biden officials said Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have further isolated Hamas.
It also points out that the deal with Hamas currently under consideration is based on an agreement that Biden proposed to Israel and Hamas in May and was later approved by the United Nations Security Council.
Miller said it is unusual for a member of the incoming administration like Witkoff to be directly involved in delicate negotiations with a foreign country.
“It’s interesting that he said today, ‘We’re making progress,'” Miller said of Witkoff. “He, like President Trump, participated personally in a negotiation process that the Biden administration owns and in which they had no official role. And, of course, they prepared to claim credit when the deal was finalized. I am arranging this.”
