hansen Who alerted most of the United States? against the harms of climate change Dramatic Congressional Testimony in 1988said Thursday that the rate of warming has jumped by 50% since 2010. Hansen argues that since 2010, there has been more solar energy in the atmosphere and fewer particles reflecting it back into space, thanks to efforts to reduce pollution. The loss of these particles means that their cooling effect is reduced.
Hansen said key calculations used to find out how much the world will warm in response to carbon pollution show much faster warming than estimates from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He said there was. Regarding the international goal of curbing global warming, he said: 1.5 degrees He said that pre-industrial temperatures of 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) were “deadlier than a doornail” and that the less stringent target of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) was on its deathbed. This is important because rising average global temperatures will lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
“Over the next few years, we will see that the rate of global warming is actually accelerating,” Hansen told a news conference. “And it’s based on simple, good physics.”
“The Earth is now more incredibly out of balance than ever before,” said Hansen, the godfather of global warming.
Several climate scientists contacted by The Associated Press expressed skepticism about Hansen’s work, out of respect for his long-term work.
Hansen’s research published in Thursday’s Diary oxford open climate change Robin Rumbole, a climate scientist at Imperial College of London, said: “The range is wide, but when claims are made that deviate significantly from the norm, there is little checking of the depth or consistency of the analysis. No,” he said. He “seems to be primarily aimed at persuading policy makers rather than scientists.”
Michael Mann, a climatologist at the University of Pennsylvania, argues that global warming is steadily progressing, but not accelerating. posted a rebuttal He agreed with Hansen’s argument and said that current climate change is bad enough and there is no need to exaggerate the claim. Mann said it was “always dangerous to ignore[Hansen’s]warnings and recommendations,” but the standard of evidence is high when claims are made that are too far from the mainstream, and Hansen said the standard of evidence is high. He said it was not satisfied.
Check yet National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data Supports Hansen modeling.
According to Hansen’s research, the world warmed at a rate of 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2010, and is projected to increase to at least 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade after 2010. The rate since then is 0.27 degrees, according to NOAA data. September 2010.
Hansen said the start date is key because scientists could begin to see the effectiveness of clean air regulations that reduce aerosol pollution and the amount of sulfur in fuels used in ocean shipping. Stated. Hansen and many other scientists say this type of traditional soot air pollution has a cooling effect that masks some of the warming caused by burning coal, oil and natural gas.
As scientists try to understand future and past warming, one important variable is climate sensitivity. This measures how much the world would warm if carbon dioxide levels in the air doubled. These calculations vary widely, and scientists have not yet reached a conclusion, but the latest UN climate commission said they were within range. Range of 2 degrees Celsius to 5 degrees Celsiusprobably in the range of 2.5 to 4 degrees, with 3 degrees being a good middle ground.
According to Hansen’s research, the temperature is 4.8 degrees Celsius. This is within the widest range, but just barely.
Hansen said the reason it’s so high is because past studies were based on incorrect calculations about the rate of global warming during ice periods.
Previous calculations were based on fossil animal and plant data, and it was assumed that microorganisms would not adapt to global warming, but would shift to favorable temperature ranges. Hansen said recent research has shown that organisms adapt and stay put, and that his team’s calculations of past temperature changes based on chemical rather than biological markers show that the Earth’s The study showed much faster warming than when carbon dioxide doubled in ancient history.
Research on climate sensitivity is diverse and inconsistent. Another recent study The temperature will be 2.8 degrees Celsius, not 4.8 degrees Celsius, said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth and the tech company Stripe. He said Hansen’s calculations “are not improbable, but they are not particularly well supported by the literature.”
But Rob Jackson, a climatologist at Stanford University, said: “Despite his claims, I tend to trust Hansen.” His claim that the IPCC underestimates climate sensitivity will be proven. ”
Hansen said more recent climate models – which the United Nations Climate Commission has downplayed as too hot – are actually more accurate than models based on cloud conditions in the Southern Seas, which mainstream climate scientists prefer. Ta.
Mann said the warming the world is seeing has been predicted for many years and does not indicate anything unusual or accelerating. He said the reported increase was not statistically significant.
Hausfather said the rate of global warming was accelerating, but he calculated the rate at 0.24 degrees per decade instead of Hansen’s 0.27 degrees.
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