One familiar face is noticeably absent from a federal by-election campaign in Montreal that could have major implications for the Liberal government.
As candidates approach the final stages of their campaign in the LaSalle-Emard-Verdun constituency, their election posters are hanging everywhere: at major intersections, on side streets, on lampposts and under stop signs.
Next to the photos of the candidates are pictures of their party leaders: Conservative Leader Pierre Poirievre smiling against a Canadian flag, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet smiling against a pale blue background, and New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh smiling against a background of some sort of green.
But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s election posters, smiling or not, are nowhere to be seen.
The district, southwest of Montreal, has long been a Liberal stronghold, and former cabinet minister David Lametti represented it from 2015 until his resignation in January.
But the LaSalle-Emard-Verdun constituency could be a hotbed of contention this time because the Liberals are trailing in the polls, and one survey suggests both the NDP and Bloc are competitive. Voters will cast their ballots on Sept. 16.
Former Liberal staffer Karleen Varyan said the lack of Trudeau’s image wasn’t surprising for a ruling party in its third term.
“In the early stages of a ruling party’s life cycle, the party leader tends to be the focus of brand building, while in later stages there tends to be more focus on the party name and brand,” she said.
Trudeau’s photo has appeared on campaign posters in past federal elections.
Andrew Perez, principal of Perez Strategies and a Liberal strategist, said he remembers volunteering during Trudeau’s election campaign in 2015, when he was first sworn into power. At the time, “Trudeau was the brand and the focus of the billboards was clearly on Trudeau,” he said.
But nearly a decade later, Trudeau’s brand is badly tarnished.
“In past elections, Trudeau was at the center of every campaign message. His picture was plastered everywhere,” said Vincent Reynaud, an associate professor of communications at the University of Quebec in Trois-Rivières. “The novelty of Trudeau and his youth and positive energy isn’t necessarily there this time, so I think they’ll try to find other ways to energize the public.”
Liberal spokesman Parker Rand said in an email that the Liberal sign at LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, which features a photo of candidate Laura Palestini, “is the same design used in previous Quebec by-elections.”
Quebec’s most recent by-election was in June 2023, when Liberal candidate Anna Gainey won another Montreal constituency. Prior to that, there hadn’t been a by-election in the province since the 2019 election.
Land noted that Palestini’s election posters all have the phrase “Team Trudeau” printed at the bottom and that the prime minister visited the district last month. Voters in the district will also be receiving “printed Liberal Party material, including a letter from Justin Trudeau” ahead of Election Day, he said.
Perez said political activists have long used subtle changes in branding and signage to get their message across to voters. He recalled that during the 2004 election, Premier Paul Martin put his name and likeness on local candidates’ campaign posters. He said this was a “deliberate attempt to distance the Liberal Party” from Martin’s predecessor, Jean Chretien.
A recent Ledger poll has the Liberal Party lagging behind the Conservatives in every region of the country except Quebec, where the polls have the Liberal Party in second place behind the Bloc Québécois. Earlier this summer, Trudeau was dealt a major blow when the Liberal Party lost its former stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul in a June by-election, a loss that led to calls for him to step down.
LaSalle-Emard-Verdun is a “crown jewel for the party,” Perez said, noting that it was Martin’s seat for 20 years under its former name of LaSalle-Emard. If the Liberals lose the seat, he said, “it would reopen the door to new debates about Trudeau’s future.”
Perez said the situation is further complicated by the NDP’s decision Wednesday to withdraw from the Supply and Confidence Agreement that has helped sustain a minority Liberal government, a decision that means the Liberals will have to separately seek opposition support in key votes to avoid an election.
Two city councillors are running in the Montreal by-election: Palestini and NDP candidate Craig Sauvé. For the Bloc, longtime political staffer Louis-Philippe Sauvé is running, while business owner Louis Iarrenty is running for the Conservatives.
The ballot will feature a record 91 candidates, most of them from the Longest Vote Committee, a group that protests Canada’s single-seat constituency system. Elections Canada has warned that the high number of candidates could cause delays on Election Day when counting the ballots, which will be nearly a metre long.
The agency says it is hiring more staff to count votes cast in early voting, which begins Friday, and that staff will begin tallying early votes before polls close on Sept. 16. Elections Canada also says it is helping with election night preparations, including simulating the entire counting process to see how long it will take to open ballot boxes, spread out all the ballots, count the votes, deal with any objections and report the results.
