For decades, Hezbollah had an iron grip on Lebanon.
This extremist group, with its vast arsenal, was more powerful than the national army. It controlled or controlled not only Lebanon’s most important government institutions, but also critical infrastructure such as the border with Syria and commercial ports. Most major political decisions could not be made without Iranian support, and no political party could seriously challenge the moves of Iran or its Iranian patron.
But that long-standing status quo is now being shaken, marking a turning point for Hezbollah and opening a new political chapter in Lebanon.
Fourteen months of fighting with Israel has devastated the once-ruined Shiite Muslim community. The rebels overthrew dictator Bashar al-Assad, a key ally in neighboring Syria. Iran also now finds itself weakened, with Iran and its allies suffering heavy blows from Israel.
Hezbollah is in its most precarious position in years as power relations are recalibrated across the Middle East after more than a year of war and turmoil. And while the group remains powerful, still numbering thousands of fighters and commanding the loyalty of most of the country’s Shiite Muslims, analysts say one thing is clear: It states that there is. That means the era of Hezbollah and Iran’s unchallenged dominance in Lebanon appears to be over.
“This is a new political reality,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “This new reality will take time to become clear,” he added. “But what we’ve seen so far is enough to show that the tide has turned.”
The sands of these political upheavals were brought to light on Thursday, when Lebanon’s parliament elected a new president and years of politics that many critics blame on Hezbollah’s efforts to thwart attempts at a settlement. Overcame the impasse. Political paralysis has left the country under the direction of a weak and incompetent caretaker government for more than two years.
In Lebanon, many see Thursday’s election of General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, as an important step toward bringing stability to the country. This was also seen as a concession by Hezbollah, seen by some analysts as an admission that Hezbollah is no longer in a position to paralyze the state.
Since Lebanon’s founding, numerous factions and sects of the country’s dozen religious groups have competed for power and influence. Its fragile political system relies on agreements among political parties, sects, and even foreign supporters. Since the end of a 15-year civil war in 1990, this system has held the country together as it has gone from crisis to crisis.
Over the past three decades, Hezbollah, both a political party and an extremist organization, has outmaneuvered its domestic enemies and forged strategic alliances to solidify its position as the real power behind the country’s weak and troubled state. .
While the government struggles to maintain light and running water, Hezbollah has built a vast network of social services, including quality health care and free education, primarily for its Shiite supporters.
But over the past three months, the group has suffered a series of devastating blows.
The war with Israel decimated Hezbollah’s upper echelons, destroyed much of its arsenal, and left the country with a bill of billions of dollars for reconstruction. That crushing defeat also shattered Hezbollah’s promise to the Lebanese people that it alone could protect Lebanon from Israel — a claim that became the group’s official raison d’être.
And last month, when the Syrian rebels Hezbollah had fought against toppled the Assad regime, the group lost a key land bridge for weapons and cash, as well as political allies.
Iran, Hezbollah’s backer, has also been on the defensive since al-Assad’s ouster, and tensions with Israel have escalated, including direct conflict over rocket attacks.
Iran’s web of anti-Israel militias known as the Axis of Resistance, of which Hezbollah was a central figure, has disintegrated with Iran’s ability to project power as far west as the Mediterranean and as far south as the Arabian Sea.
Without these pillars of support, Hezbollah and its allies’ ability to influence Lebanese politics is diminished, even as they seek to present themselves as national agenda-setters. Their declining influence was evident even before the vote, when the Hezbollah-backed presidential candidate withdrew from the race late Wednesday night.
Sami Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at St. Joseph’s University in Beirut, said Hezbollah’s “narrative has been greatly discredited, its military has been severely weakened, and I think it will have to start paying the price politically.” I’m thinking about it.”
Most experts agree that Hezbollah remains Lebanon’s most dominant political force, even in its weakened state. But they say that is more a reflection of the country’s political dysfunction and infighting than evidence of the group’s hold on power. That dysfunction was on full display during Thursday’s parliamentary vote, which often led to shouting matches before the vote.
General Aoun’s presidential election on Thursday is the first step in determining a new political map for the country and the region, analysts say. General Aoun is widely believed to be backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia once vied for influence in Lebanon, but has since lost that position to Iran and Hezbollah.
In his victory speech, General Aoun hinted at the vision he and his allies share for a new political era in Lebanon, saying the day marked “a new phase in Lebanon’s history.”
He once referred to the Arab countries forced out of Lebanon by Iran as “brother” states. He spoke of the state’s “monopoly right to own arms.” This is a subtle reference to calls for Hezbollah to disarm after its 60-day ceasefire with Israel ends at the end of this month. And he envisioned a nation that could be defended by its own military, free of militias like Hezbollah that had long dragged the country into civil strife and war.
“My commitment is to seek the establishment of a state – I repeat, a state – that invests in a defense strategy and military, controls all its borders and implements international resolutions,” General Aoun said.
Still, experts warn that the country is still in the early stages of this new political chapter and that Hezbollah could still make a comeback. The coming months will be critical for the group, including whether it can help rebuild large swaths of the war-torn country and whether it will fully withdraw from southern Lebanon as outlined in the cease-fire agreement. It will be full of litmus tests.
“Hezbollah has suffered a staggering blow in terms of its strategic authority and ability to confront Israel,” said Paul Salem, deputy director for international engagement at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “However, it remains a very heavily armed group within Lebanon, more powerful than any other group in the country.”
