ottawa –
With the NDP pledging to reject the government early next year, whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stays in office or not, Canada appears to be on the fast track to a spring election.
In the wake of last week’s drama that rocked Trudeau’s government, political watchers are buzzing over possible scenarios that could unfold next year, but the spring national movement is the fastest to solidify.
Although the exact timing has not yet been decided, Jaroslav Baran, co-founder of Pendulum Group, believes the best option is for the government to collapse by the end of March, followed by a general election in April or May. spoke. Former chief of staff to Conservative House of Commons leader Jay Hill.
“The most likely outcome would be for the government to collapse at some point between late February and late March,” he said, adding that April or May was the “most likely” date for voting. “This is a high scenario.”
If the government loses a vote of no confidence, the Prime Minister will be required to report to Governor Mary Simon and advise her on the timing of an election. According to Elections Canada, the minimum campaign period is 36 days and the maximum is 50 days.
Last week’s events in Ottawa caused the political calendar to change by about 50 days, as Chrystia Freeland’s sudden resignation dealt a major blow to Trudeau’s control of the party and renewed calls for him to resign. It seems like it’s a month early. As a leader.
Prime Minister Trudeau is said to be currently contemplating his future. The prime minister’s office did not respond to questions about his holiday plans on Monday.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has vowed to help defeat the ruling Liberals in a vote of confidence when the House returns. The Conservative Party, which has a firm lead in opinion polls, has been calling for an election throughout the autumn, while the Bloc has also recently called for an election early in the new year.
Singh could still change his mind, and many scenarios are possible, including the opposition negotiating his way into the budget and holding autumn elections as planned, but that is becoming increasingly unlikely. be.
“It no longer makes any sense to enter into some agreement and then become a partner of a government that a few months later is vilified as public enemy number one,” Baran said.
Britney Kerr, a founding partner at Framepoint Public Affairs and a former Liberal Party member, said: “Clearly the Liberal Party no longer has the support of any opposition party, so regardless of whether the government does a ceasefire or not, it will be There is a high possibility that a general election will be held.” 2019 Campaign Co-Chair.
“Given the overwhelming support for the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister’s long tenure in office, no one at the center[of the Prime Minister’s Office]can realize just how complex the political formula for victory will be.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leaves a cabinet meeting at Parliament House in Ottawa on December 20, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
The government could still press the pause button on parliament, sending it into a deep winter sleep for months. That would give the leadership race some breathing room should Trudeau decide to resign.
But Baran said all opposition parties now appear ready to vote, given that parliament must return soon to approve finances and continue paying civil servants. , said such a move would only take him so far, and in the face of those critical votes.
“If the Prime Minister were to adjourn, he would not have to attend Parliament on January 27th. This would buy him time to plan and reorganize, but the adjournment would give him time to plan and reorganize. It will be very difficult for the period to extend beyond 2018,” at the end of March. ”
The leadership election will be hectic compared to previous Liberal Party elections. When Prime Minister Trudeau was elected leader in 2013, the campaign took about six months, but in 1993, the Progressive Conservative Party elected Kim Campbell in a campaign that lasted about three months.
Former Privy Council Secretary Michael Wernick says a suspension just before Donald Trump takes office as president on January 20 would hurt Canada by removing parliamentary power at the wrong time. It said options for responding to possible sudden trade moves would be taken off the table.
“The question is not whether the Prime Minister can be suspended, but whether he should be. My sense is that it would be a very bad choice to take down the shield before January 20th. There is a need for Parliament to exist and to function. I think there is.”
The Liberal Party has argued that an experienced government is needed to deal with the unpredictable nature of President Trump, while opposition parties have also argued that the public wants more than Trudeau to deal with an aggressive President. also argues that we should choose strong leaders.
Wernick said Canada should aim to conclude the election early this year rather than later.
“The best thing for our country is for the election to be concluded as quickly as possible and for Canadians to be clear about who they elected to lead us.” “The longer this performance theater and this house in the sand continues, the more this country will become weaker.”
Wernick said given the high stakes of Trump’s presidency, there is a kind of partisan truce in which political parties are working to pass as many bills as possible in a short period of time, such as Bill C-65, which would fix Canadian elections. He suggested that an agreement could be reached. Take action and vote of confidence to trigger an election.
“Republicans and Democrats can negotiate in Washington, and our party can certainly do that.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 24, 2024.
