Iran’s highest-ranking general in Syria contradicted the official position taken by Iranian leaders on the sudden ouster of ally Bashar al-Assad, warning in a surprisingly frank speech last week that Iran had suffered a crushing defeat. Despite the loss, he said he would still try to operate in Syria. country.
Audio recording of a speech given last week by Brig. General Behruz Esbati’s comments from a Tehran mosque surfaced publicly in Iranian media on Monday, in stark contrast to statements made by Iran’s president, foreign minister and other top leaders. For weeks, they have downplayed the magnitude of Iran’s strategic losses in Syria, where rebels ousted al-Assad from power last month, and said Iran is not willing to accept any political outcome decided by the Syrian people. He also said that he would respect it.
“I do not consider the loss of Syria to be something to be proud of,” General Esbati said, according to an audio recording of the speech. Abdi Media, The Geneva-based news site, which focuses on Iran, published on Monday. “We lost, we lost very badly. We were hit very hard and it was very difficult.”
General Esbati revealed that relations between Iran and al-Assad had been strained in the months leading up to his ouster, with the Syrian leader demanding Iranian-backed militias from Syria in the aftermath of the civil war. He said that he had rejected multiple requests from the United States to open a front against Israel. Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023.
He said Iran presented al-Assad with a comprehensive military plan on how Iran’s military resources in Syria could be used to attack Israel.
The general also told Iran that Russian warplanes were bombing Syrian rebels when they were actually dropping bombs on fields, and that Russia, considered a key ally, told Iran that Russian jets were bombing Syrian rebels when they were actually dropping bombs on fields. accused of misleading. He also said that when Israel attacked Iranian targets in Syria last year, Russia “went off the radar” and effectively facilitated those attacks.
For more than a decade, Iran has backed al-Assad, sending commanders and troops to help fight the Islamic State rebel group.
Syria under Mr. al-Assad was central to a network of regional militias backed by Iran. This provided a land route for Iran to supply arms and supplies to militant groups, most importantly Hezbollah in Lebanon, strengthening the militants’ power and Iran’s regional influence.
The rebel coalition now controls large parts of Syria and is aiming to form a government. In his speech, General Esbati said that Iran will seek ways to mobilize rebel forces in whatever form the new Syria takes.
“We can enable all the networks that we have worked with over the years,” he said. “We can activate the social strata that our peers have lived within for years. We can be active on social media and form resistance cells. You can.”
He added: “We can now operate there like any other international stage, and we have already started.”
The general’s comments surprised Iranians both for their unfiltered content and the speaker’s stature. He is the supreme commander of the Iranian Armed Forces, including the Armed Forces and the Revolutionary Guards, and has held prominent positions including supreme commander of the armed forces’ cyber sector.
In Syria, he oversees Iran’s military operations, working closely with Syrian ministers, defense officials and Russian generals, and appoints Ismail, the commander-in-chief of the Quds Force, who oversees a network of Iranian-backed regional militias. He surpassed even General Ghani.
Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Tehran analyst and Syria expert, said in a telephone interview that General Esbati’s speech was important because it showed that some senior officials were moving away from government propaganda and aligning themselves with the people. said.
“Everyone in the meeting is talking about that speech, especially in public, and wondering why he said this,” Rahmati said. “He explained very clearly what happened to Iran and what kind of situation Iran is in now. In a way, this could be a warning for domestic politics.”
General Esbati said the fall of Assad’s regime was inevitable given the economic difficulties facing the people, including rampant corruption, political repression, electricity shortages and lack of basic income. Al-Assad said he ignored warnings to reform. Analyst Rahmati said the comparison with the current situation in Iran cannot be overlooked.
Despite the general’s claims about revitalizing the network, what Iran can realistically do in Syria given the popular and political opposition it faces at home and the challenges of land and air access. It remains unclear what will happen. Israel has warned that it will destroy any Iranian activity it detects on the ground in Syria.
And while Iran has experience operating in Iraq (including sowing unrest) after the 2003 US invasion, Syria’s geography and political situation are vastly different and present more challenges.
An Iranian Revolutionary Guards member who spent years in Iraq as a military strategist alongside senior commanders said in a telephone interview that General Esbati’s comments about Iran’s recruitment of rebels are more aspirational than realistic at this stage. He said it might be something like that. He said that while General Esbati acknowledged a significant defeat, he also sought to boost morale and appease conservatives who want stronger action from Iran.
The Guard official, who asked that his name not be used because he was discussing sensitive issues, said Iran policy had not yet been finalized, but there was consensus at the meetings he attended where strategy was discussed. He said Iran would benefit if Syria descended into chaos because it thrives in turbulent situations and knows how to secure its interests.
In Iran, the Revolutionary Guards have the power to set regional policy and control the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who has the final say on major national issues, has said in at least two speeches since Mr. al-Assad’s ouster that the Syrian resistance is not yet dead, and that Syrian youth are determined to take control. He added that the country would be taken back from the insurgents. , he called them stooges of Israel and the United States. President Massoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have taken a more conciliatory stance, saying they support stability in Syria and diplomatic relations with the new government.
The tensions surrounding these competing views on Syria have caught the attention of officials, who last week launched a damage control campaign with the public. Senior military commanders and experts close to the government spoke at mosques and community centers in several cities and held question-and-answer sessions with the audience.
General Esbati’s speech was given at the Variasul Mosque in central Tehran on December 31, and was given to civilian soldiers and members of the mosque, according to the announcement for the event titled “Answering Questions on the Collapse of Syria.” It was aimed at
The session began with General Esbati telling the audience that he had left Syria for Tehran on the last military plane the night before Damascus fell to rebels. He ended by answering questions from the audience. He offered the most sobering assessment of Iran’s military capabilities to fight Israel and the United States.
Asked if Iran would retaliate for Israel’s killing of Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, he said Iran had already retaliated, referring to last fall’s missile barrage. Asked if Iran was planning to carry out a third direct attack on Israel, he said the “circumstances” do not allow it to realistically respond to a new attack on Israel at this time.
Asked why Iran did not fire missiles at US military bases in the region, he said that would invite a larger retaliatory attack by the US against Iran and its allies, adding that it would not use conventional missiles rather than Iran’s most advanced missiles. The system added that the missiles of the United States cannot penetrate the defenses of developed countries.
Despite this assessment, General Ebati asked everyone not to worry, saying Iran and its allies still have the upper hand in the region.
