The federal government released estimates of the impact that carbon pricing would have on the size of the economy after being accused by the opposition Conservative party of silencing parliamentary staff.
The model, prepared by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) in May and released today, projects the impact of carbon pricing on emissions and gross domestic product (GDP).
The department’s modellers applied rising carbon prices to GDP data from Statistics Canada, which showed that without carbon pricing, Canada’s emissions would increase by nearly 11% by 2030.
Models suggest that carbon pricing could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by around 80 million tonnes (Mt).
The data also shows that carbon pricing is expected to reduce the country’s GDP.
The government’s announcement comes as the Conservatives plan to table an opposition motion on Thursday to force the government to provide a copy of an economic analysis of the impact of a federal fuel tax and production-based pricing system.
According to ECCC figures, without carbon pricing, Canada’s GDP would be about $2.68 trillion in 2030. With carbon pricing, it is expected to reach $2.66 trillion in 2030.
The data mirrors previous analysis that found both GDP and emissions would increase without carbon pricing. The data models the impact of a patchwork of federal and state/territory carbon pricing systems, including both industrial carbon pricing and consumer carbon pricing, widely known as a carbon tax.
A federal official who was not authorized to speak publicly told CBC News the data doesn’t come close to what the government considers a “robust economic analysis.”
The sources also said the government’s position remains that eight in 10 Canadians receive more in quarterly carbon tax refunds than they pay in federal fuel taxes.
The sources also said there was a risk of misinterpreting the data because it did not model the cost of taking no action on climate change, the impact of tax rebates and other revenues passed on to households and businesses, or the new jobs that might result from greening the economy.
Canadian Climate Institute By 2030Climate change and extreme weather could cost the Canadian economy $35 billion. The federal government estimates that $15 billion to $25 billion in government and private investments are needed each year to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the economy.
The ECCC released the model on Thursday after Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux told lawmakers the government had figures on the economic impact of carbon pricing that it had not made public.
“Staff in my office have seen it but have been specifically instructed not to make it public or mention it,” Giroux told the House of Representatives. Finance Committee on June 3rd.
Conservatives then accused the government of issuing a “gag order” against Mr Giroud.
“Last week, the Parliamentary Budget Office revealed the government is hiding secret carbon tax reports that prove the vast majority of Canadians are paying more into this scam than they are receiving in fake refunds,” Conservative finance critic Jasraj Singh Haran said in the House of Commons on Monday.
“The Liberal/New Democratic Party government did what they do best – they imposed a gag order on the PBO and hid the truth from Canadians.”
“Unfortunately, the Conservative government has once again misled Canadians,” Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault responded. “My government has supported, and will continue to support, the Parliamentary Budget Officer in fulfilling his role and responsibilities.”
Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault told Power & Politics that the recent error by the Parliamentary Budget Officer was “below the standard” he expects from the Parliamentary Budget Office, which released its latest analysis of federal carbon pricing and said it had mistakenly included an industrial carbon price.
The carbon pricing debate took a new turn in May when Giroux quietly released an analysis of the financial and economic impacts of a federal fuel tax that turned out to contain what he called “inadvertent errors.”
The PBO calculation in this analysis included the impact of both a consumer carbon price and an industrial carbon price.
The PBO promised to update its analysis by the fall. In a posted letter The PBO’s website says the office requested the data from Environment Canada in April.
In a letter sent in MayEnvironment Canada shared an Excel spreadsheet with the cautionary notes.
“The data provided by the Ministry of Environment contains information that has not been made public,” Environment Canada’s Deputy Minister Jean-François Tremblay said in the letter. “We therefore ask that this information be used for internal ministry purposes only and that it not be made public or further disseminated.”
CBC filed a freedom of information request for the unpublished data, and Guilbeault’s department proactively released it to CBC and other journalists, making it publicly available online today.
CBC’s freedom of information request has not yet been fulfilled.
