France’s left-wing parties made unexpected gains in national parliamentary elections on Sunday, preventing the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally party from winning a majority in the lower house of parliament.
But no party stands a chance of winning an absolute majority, plunging one of Europe’s largest countries into gridlock and political instability.
The results, compiled by The New York Times using Interior Ministry data, confirmed earlier predictions that no single party or group would win a majority.
Here are five lessons learned from the election:
Big Surprise No.1
When France held surprise elections to choose a new parliament, there were two big surprises that experts, pollsters and forecasters did not foresee.
The biggest victory was for the left, which won 178 seats and became France’s leading political force. It was the most surprising victory for the French left since François Mitterrand revived it from the devastation of the post-war period and won the presidency for the Socialist Party in 1981.
President Emmanuel Macron, the favorite of many French commentators, has spent the past seven years declaring that the left, especially the Socialist party, is dead and that extremists like France Indomitable are dangerous troublemakers. On Sunday, both parties won in landslide victories.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, founder of the Rest in France party, is expected to win around 80 seats, maybe a dozen more than the Socialists. The party has declared that Macron now has an “obligation” to nominate a prime minister from the New Popular Front, a left-wing coalition. He has boldly said that he refuses to “enter into negotiations with the president.”
In Paris on Sunday night, large, raucous crowds gathered to celebrate in the predominantly working-class neighborhood around Stalingrad Square.
The other two parties in the New Popular Front are the Green Party, which is projected to win around 35 seats, and the Communist Party, which is projected to win around 10 seats.
Big surprise #2
Another shock was the third-place finish of the National Coalition and its allies, who were expected to win the most, if not the majority, seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, the more powerful lower house.
The party was already preparing to govern alongside Macron in a so-called coexistence arrangement if the prime minister and president were in political conflict.
Still, the National Alliance and its allies won 142 seats, more than at any point in the party’s history, a fact the party was quick to point out.
“The tide is rising,” Marine Le Pen, the party’s longtime leader and a frequent presidential candidate, told reporters on Sunday. “This time the tide was not full enough, but it’s still rising. As a result, the reality is that our victory is only being delayed.”
But the fundamental change that was predicted before Sunday – that France would become a far-right country – did not occur.
And despite Le Pen’s bold rhetoric, the Rally National’s election night party was a somber affair.
The Republican Front might have worked.
It is too early to tell how voting patterns changed between the two rounds of voting and how the New Popular Front achieved its surprise victory, but a strategy aimed at forming a “republican front” to thwart the far-right appears to have played a major role.
France’s left-wing parties and Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition withdrew more than 200 candidates from a three-way race in districts where the far right was likely to win seats, leading many voters who disliked the far right to vote for the remaining candidates — even if they were not their first choice.
“Under normal circumstances I would never have voted for an unyielding France,” said Hélène Leguillon, 43, after voting in Le Mans. “We are being forced to make choices we would not have made otherwise, to prevent a national rally.”
The far-right said the tactic was unfair and took away voters’ right to have a say.
“Depriving millions of French people of the possibility to bring their ideas to power can never be a realistic path for France,” Rally National leader Jordan Bardella said in a speech to supporters, accusing Macron and the left of making a “dangerous electoral deal.”
Voter turnout soars
Official turnout data for the runoff was not immediately available as of Sunday night, but opinion polls have pegged turnout at about 67%, much higher than the last time France held parliamentary elections in 2022. That year, only around 46% of registered voters took part in the second round.
Turnout on Sunday was the highest since 1997, reflecting intense interest in a race with much higher stakes than usual.
In France, parliamentary elections are usually held just weeks after presidential elections and often favor the party that wins them, making voting in parliament less likely to garner interest from voters, many of whom feel the outcome is predetermined.
But this time, voters believed that their vote could fundamentally change Macron’s course, and they appear to have been right.
What happens next is unclear
With no party having an absolute majority and the Chamber of Deputies set to be dominated by factions that hate each other, it is unclear how exactly France will be governed, and by whom.
Macron must appoint a prime minister capable of forming a government that cannot be toppled by a vote of no confidence by the new members of the National Assembly.
It’s not yet clear who that might be, and none of the three main camps, which have their own internal disagreements, seem ready to cooperate with the others.
“French political culture does not encourage compromise,” said Samy Benzina, a professor of public law at the University of Poitiers.
Mr. Mélenchon is disliked by many in the Socialist Party (and even by some in his own party who resent his control over it even though he is no longer its official leader), some in Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party resent the president’s decision to call early elections, and most non-National Rally lawmakers despise the party.
Macron himself is a powerful and infuriating figure, as he has repeatedly proven during his seven years as president, but he has already ruled out resigning, according to a new poll by Ifop polling institute. The meeting took place after the decision to hold a general election was made and before the vote. He received only 26 percent approval rating..
Where will France’s next prime minister come from? Does Macron still have legislative power? If the lower house becomes ungovernable, can he continue as speaker?
stay tuned.
Segolene Le Stradic He reported from Le Mans, France.