When the war in Gaza ended in 2021, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar Photographed sitting in an armchair In his dilapidated home, a symbol of continued resistance to Israel.
Shinwar was killed in the latest Gaza war, in which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to dismantle and destroy Hamas. But with a ceasefire reached on Sunday after 15 months of massive destruction and deaths, Hamas, though badly wounded and weakened, will survive and remain in command of Gaza, at least for the time being.
Already, thousands of Hamas fighters have emerged from hiding places and are deploying to re-establish control.
“Frankly, Hamas not only still exists, it continues to be the most important force in the Gaza Strip,” said the former Israeli negotiator, a research organization based in London and New York. Daniel Levy, Chairman of the Middle East Project. .
The situation highlights the fragility of the agreement with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces enormous political pressure at home. Also, as Donald J. Trump plans to take office again amid great uncertainty as to how he intends to deal with the situation in the Middle East, which has changed significantly since his first term. There is also.
And the war isn’t over. The three-phase cease-fire agreement remains largely unchanged from the plan President Biden announced eight months ago, but it is extremely fragile, as evidenced by the tense delay to its start Sunday morning. It is expected to take 16 days for the second stage of talks to begin.
Moving from this first phase to the second phase would mean a de facto end to the war with an almost complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, but given the necessary concessions and the political situation, this would be extremely difficult. It is considered extremely difficult and even impossible. Dynamics on both sides.
Mr. Trump has been credited by many with demanding that Mr. Netanyahu conclude the deal now and providing the Israeli prime minister with cover to do so. It remains to be seen whether Mr. Trump and his team, who have so many other things on their plate, will devote their time and influence to pushing through the next and most difficult steps.
Natan Sachs, director of the Middle East Policy Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said Mr. Trump would not want to restart fighting on his watch. But Prime Minister Netanyahu faces strong opposition to the deal within his coalition government and “doesn’t want the war to end, and Hamas also intends to continue its military struggle and rearmament,” Sachs said.
Sanam Baqir, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, said Prime Minister Netanyahu could pursue Hamas’s violation of ceasefire terms as “justification for why a second phase is not possible or will not happen.” said that it was high. , a research institute in London. “And he will be tough on the terms of Israel’s withdrawal.”
The deal may end fighting for the time being, but gives Israel and its forces “perpetual freedom of action,” as in Lebanon, Baqir said, adding that the Lebanon-based militia Hezbollah , referring to the ceasefire signed in November. . Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself said in an address to the nation on Saturday that Israel “reserves the right to resume fighting if it reaches the conclusion that negotiations on a second phase are hopeless.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently refused to discuss who or what will rule Gaza in place of Hamas, effectively denying that Israel has spent the past 15 months destroying Gaza. It would cede territory to a group that has killed tens of thousands of civilians and fighters. process. The war broke out after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people and capturing around 250.
Hamas has regained control of Gaza and will effectively be in charge of the large influx of humanitarian aid. Yahya Sinwar’s brother Muhammad currently runs Hamas in Gaza.
Trump also faces complex and difficult choices about how much of his authority to invest in the Middle East, especially if, as he says, he wants to revive his plans to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia. That’s going to happen. Israel. Even before war broke out in Gaza, an agreement between the two countries seemed on the verge of becoming a reality.
Mustafa Barghouti, a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council, said the ceasefire deal is good for the Palestinians, saying “the killings will stop, prisoners will come out of prison” and humanitarian aid will surge. , he said. But he said there was no guarantee the deal would hold up, adding that Palestinians “need a real process that leads to an end to the Israeli occupation” in both Gaza and the West Bank.
Saudi Arabia has made clear during the war that it wants concrete steps toward an independent Palestinian state, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to block it. And some in Mr. Trump’s circle support Israel’s further or complete annexation of the West Bank, which could make the survival of a Palestinian state nearly impossible. Mike Huckabee, who was nominated to be ambassador to Israel, said this at a press conference. Visited Israel in 2017 There was no such thing as the West Bank or a job.
“The annexation of the West Bank will destroy the possibility of a two-state solution,” Barghouti said.
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. diplomat now at the Carnegie Endowment, said at one point that “Prime Minister Netanyahu will be at odds with President Trump, who wants deals with Saudi Arabia and Iran.” Ta.
Even the Gaza deal poses a serious domestic political challenge for Netanyahu. Already, one of the far-right parties in Itamar Ben Gvir’s coalition government has quit, vowing to return only if the war resumes. If Israel’s other far-right party in the coalition led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich also defectes, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be left leading a minority government almost two years before the next election.
In addition to Gaza, Netanyahu also faces two thorny domestic issues: a new budget and a draft law for Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) conscription that promises to put him at odds with far-right and religious parties. Budget is very important. Sachs said if the bill is not passed by the end of March, the coalition government will automatically dissolve.
“There could be a real political crisis, and as we approach the second stage, we might see Trump versus Ben Gvir and Smotrich,” Sachs said.
These political considerations could come to a head if Mr. Trump decides to press ahead with a deal with Saudi Arabia and presents Mr. Netanyahu with difficult choices.
Israeli leaders could make concessions to their coalition partners and hold up the deal, potentially angering the United States, its most important ally. Alternatively, he could dissolve the government and call elections based on working with Trump towards a more lasting peace in the region, including a substantive step towards a Palestinian state.
This last option would pose considerable risks for Mr. Netanyahu. Netanyahu’s unpopularity among centrist voters forced him to join forces with Ben Gvir and Smotrich in the last election.
Overshadowing everything is Iran, which is enriching uranium to weapons-grade limits at a rapid pace. Iran denies it is aiming for a bomb, but it is in significant regional decline and its economy is in decline. Israel and the United States have vowed to prevent any Iranian nuclear bomb, and there is a strong argument within Israel that now is the time to attack Iran.
However, it is thought unlikely that Trump wants to be drawn into a new war and is said to be open to a deal with a weakened Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has contacted European diplomats and Trump administration officials, saying his country also wants a deal on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of punitive economic sanctions.
Sachs said Trump is inherently unpredictable. Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israelis “will be confronting the president of the United States, who is undoubtedly very pro-Israel and eager to receive their goodwill, but at the same time he is trying to serve his own interests.” “They will forcefully demand whatever they think will happen.” ”
