Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says his party has built a “strong brand across the country,” but that brand has looked much better in provincial politics lately than at the federal level.
In British Columbia, where Singh is one of 13 B.C. New Democrats MPs, Premier David Eby’s party is leading in the polls heading into this fall’s federal election. Wab Kinew’s provincial New Democratic Party defeated the incumbent Progressive Conservatives in Manitoba last year after seven years in opposition.
The Saskatchewan NDP is not expected to win the province’s federal election this fall, according to opinion polls, but is hoping for its biggest electoral surge in more than a decade under Leader Carla Beck.
Alberta’s New Democratic Party overwhelmingly elected former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi as its leader for the next election last month, and Nenshi has openly suggested he is considering holding a vote to separate the provincial party from the national one.
And the federal New Democrats hold just 24 of Parliament’s 338 seats, a significant drop from the 103 they held when they came into opposition in 2011. 338Canada polling siteFederal parties have a 17 percent approval rating nationwide, and the New Democrats have so far been unable to capitalize on the federal Liberal Party’s struggles to reverse a long streak in the polls.
Still, Singh said he is encouraged by the success of his rural cousins.
“There’s been a big development where people have seen the horrific impact of the Conservatives in Manitoba…. They [Heather] The Stephenson government [Brian] “The previous Pallister government cut and eviscerated the health-care system,” Singh said at a news conference in Timmins, Ont., on Monday.
“That’s what’s happening in Saskatchewan. We’re seeing cuts finally hurting people so much that they’re saying they have to look for alternatives.”
So why does the New Democrats seem to be enjoying better luck in local politics?
One of the architects “Orange Wave” by Jack Layton In 2011, former NDP national campaign manager Brad Lavigne said New Democrats in the western provinces were benefiting from what was essentially a two-party election campaign.
But with a crowded federal parliament and five parties in the House of Commons, Lavigne said the NDP will need to find a way to replicate its near-landslide victory in Quebec 13 years ago if it wants to be seen as viable in more areas.
“I think there’s now a cap being put on the NDP at the federal level because they didn’t make a breakthrough in Quebec,” he said.
With many Canadians concerned about the rising cost of living, he said the NDP has an “obligation” to fight for the blue-collar voters that Premier Pierre Poirierbre and the Conservatives are trying to woo.
“I think this is a fight the NDP should relish. It’s similar to the fight that’s going on in Western Canada,” Lavigne said.
“If you look at the two competing visions of Wab Kinew and former Progressive Conservative premier Heather Stephenson, the difference between their visions couldn’t have been starker. You can do that at the federal level, but you have to define the term.”
An organizer for Premier Kinew’s campaign, who spoke privately to CBC News because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the issue, said the campaign is focused on “practical” policy proposals.
Organizers said while the passage of the drug benefits and dental subsidy bills is a policy victory for the federal NDP, the political impact will be modest, because many voters already have insurance through their workplace or private insurers, they suggested.
Mike MacKinnon, an NDP strategist who has worked for Alberta Premier Rachel Notley and British Columbia Premier John Horgan, said the provincial party has found success by focusing on “issues at home.”
“[Kinew] “We said, ‘We’re going to eliminate the state gas tax until inflation is under control,’ and that 14 cents a gallon is going to go right back into people’s pockets,” McKinnon said.
“This is a very popular policy in Manitoba. It’s a recognition that at the end of the day, what people care about most is how much money they have in their pocket.”
MacKinnon, who volunteers for Eby’s campaign, said the British Columbia New Democratic Party is taking a similar approach, focusing on home affordability and housing issues.
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NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh answers questions about the Liberal Party’s defeat in the Toronto-St. Paul by-election.
One obstacle the Manitoba NDP faced was the provincial-federal party’s ties. Organizers said right-wing activists have “done a good job” of connecting Singh with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in voters’ minds, using the supply and confidence agreement between the federal Liberals and the NDP.
Lori Williams, a political science professor at Mount Royal University, cited “the success of the Conservative campaign to challenge the government and portray it as essentially a coalition of the Liberals and New Democrats, or that they are one and the same.”
“As elections approach, center and left-leaning voters often weigh the options before them and flock to the Liberals because they see that voting for the NDP increases the chances that the Conservatives will win seats,” she added. “So those are the two challenges facing the NDP at the federal level.”
MacKinnon said the introduction of dental subsidies and the passage of the first-ever pharmaceutical benefits bill give the federal NDP a chance to step out from under the Liberal shadow.
“This is the kind of thing that you can go on the doorstep and say, ‘This wouldn’t have happened if we didn’t have more New Democrats in Parliament. I want to do more of this for you.’ That’s what the NDP should be advocating for,” he said.
Williams said every administration around the world is struggling with the current political climate.
“it is [Saskatchewan] “The NDP is gaining momentum, and that’s certainly true in the polls, and that’s in part because the current government, the Saskatchewan Party, has made a lot of unpopular decisions,” Williams said.
“So it’s still possible that the incumbent will influence what happens in Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan. I think those multiple factors are very dynamic.”
With just over three months to go until the provincial election, British Columbia’s major political parties are looking to boost their coffers. Some are flush with cash, while others are struggling to raise funds. Katie DeRosa reports that the latest political donations show where voters’ loyalties lie.
Nikki Hill, a British Columbia-based NDP strategist with 25 years of experience, said the party is watching the developments closely as the provincial election draws closer.
She said this is an unusual race for B.C., where four parties are currently represented in the provincial legislature.
“BC United is in decline and the BC Conservatives are taking on the role of the right wing, but BC United is not giving up the fight, so we’re in a unique situation with a federal election,” Hill said.
“It’s also a benefit to see a contrast of what leaders really stand for.”
Hill said he thinks the NDP has an opportunity to use the Supply and Confidence Agreement to pitch itself as the next government.
Hill pointed to the role the BC Green Party played in helping the BC New Democratic Party form government in 2017, and said it’s wise to use the power available to you in a minority government.
“At some point you decide to roll the dice and take a gamble on whether you can win the election and be supported as a government or whether you can really bring about historic change,” she said.
“If you go back to Tommy Douglas and Medicare, it’s about whether we can deliver historic change that will benefit Canadians for the long term.”
Lavigne said at some point, federal parties will have to decide whether they want to be the conscience of the House or form a government.
“Have we raised the money we need to win? Do we have the right candidates for cabinet positions? Are we positioning our activists to win in every part of the country?” he said.
“I would ask any campaign organizer to ask themselves these questions, and if the answer is yes to all of them, then the party is on its way to winning. And if the answer is no to any of them, then I think the party needs to do some soul-searching.
