Observers expect Kamala Harris to follow President Joe Biden’s road map for U.S.-Canada relations as she works to secure the Democratic presidential nomination.
“Her views are very similar to the president’s on issues that are important to the Canada-U.S. relationship,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.
Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race on Sunday but endorsed Harris, his lieutenant.
Biden has succumbed to weeks of pressure after appearing confused and weak in a debate with Republican rival Donald Trump last month and then repeatedly blundering on the world stage at a NATO summit.
Vice President Harris has moved quickly to solidify her support for the party’s presidential nomination, and she has the backing of key Democratic figures, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who wields considerable influence within the party.
“Most importantly, the party has coalesced remarkably around Harris,” said Mark Trussler of the University of Pennsylvania.
Trussler, director of data science at the university’s Program in Polling and Election Studies, said the main question after Biden’s departure is whether Democrats can follow him and present a united front.
Harris is expected to gain a surge in delegate support ahead of the party’s national convention next month, where the presidential nominee will be selected.
Trussler, a Canadian, said this is a critical moment where Democrats must decide whether the focus of the election is Biden’s intellectual acuity or Trump’s policies.
“It seems like this election is likely to be about Donald Trump,” Trusler said.
Canada’s ambassador to the United States, Kirsten Hillman, said relations between the two countries have flourished under Biden’s leadership, describing him as an “experienced, thoughtful and committed” leader.
Still, Canadians have been reaching out to both Democrats and Republicans for months, urging them to work together ahead of the November elections, most notably over the looming 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
Harris was one of 10 US senators who voted against the trade deal, saying it did not do enough to protect American workers and the environment.
During his presidency, Trump pushed to renegotiate the old North American Free Trade Agreement and his administration has imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of imports, particularly from China. He has threatened to impose further tariffs and cut aid to Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression if elected to a second term.
“Under our leadership, America will be respected again,” Trump said in a lengthy speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last week.
Buying American Tensions
Softwood lumber and the Canadian digital services tax have been key issues for both Republicans and Democrats.
Biden’s term has brought some stability but not much change. Biden has largely kept Trump’s tariffs in place despite promising to reverse them. Tensions have also risen over the Biden administration’s “Buy American” rules.
Federal New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh said he wasn’t concerned about signs that his party could continue to lean toward protectionist policies under Harris. Speaking in Timmons, Ontario, Singh told reporters that Trump was tyrannical while Biden was more willing to compromise on key aspects of trade.
Melissa Hausman, a professor emeritus at Ottawa’s Carleton University, said she believes Harris “gets it” about trade, particularly with Canada.
Gary Keller, vice president of lobbying firm Strategy Corporation, said he expects those protectionist policies to continue under Harris’ banner.
The woman, who is seen as a possible Democratic nominee for U.S. president if Joe Biden steps down, spent part of her childhood in Quebec.
Keller, who served as chief of staff to former Conservative foreign affairs minister John Baird, said Democrats will have to work hard to win heavily Democratic states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
They switched to the Republican Party after Trump’s victory in 2016, then switched to the Democrats in 2020 to help put Biden in the White House.
Alasdair Roberts, a professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said Canadians shouldn’t focus too much on the outcome of this election. Instead, he said, the Canadian government needs to develop a long-term strategy for dealing with an increasingly chaotic American political system.
“Regardless of who wins this election, the long-term reality for Canada is that the United States is facing a period of political and social instability for the next few years,” said Roberts, who is Canadian.
Roberts said presidential power and the role of the federal government have expanded since World War Two and are now a “winner-takes-all” contest, creating an increasingly volatile electoral environment and making the US an increasingly tricky neighbor.
The challenge for Canadians, Roberts said, is “figuring out how to manage that instability.”
That means “enhanced decentralized diplomacy” that isn’t just focused on Washington, he said. It must also include dialogue with state governments, vital industries and the American people themselves.
Roberts suspects leaders in Ottawa and across Canada are already planning for worst-case scenarios for Canada’s relationship with its largest partner. They’re likely asking “what can we do to reduce our reliance on the U.S.,” he said.