As Donald J. Trump took the oath of office in Washington on Monday, the crowd at a packed party hosted by a Ukrainian business organization in Davos, Switzerland, watched the ceremony intently on a giant screen.
The event, held on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting, seemed to demonstrate enthusiasm for the returning American president. Speakers praised Trump and predicted that he would be a valuable partner for Ukraine in its war against Russia, despite his criticism of U.S. military spending. Waiters served mini cheeseburgers on red and blue buns (“American food,” one participant whispered). At the end, some people applauded.
But the apparent optimism was a veneer belying deep uncertainty.
“We hope that President Trump will surprise us, but we don’t know what the surprise will be,” Andy Hunter, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, said at the party.
Trump’s return to the White House has plunged Europe’s business leaders and policymakers into a period of uncertainty, and officials are preparing for it behind the scenes. The European Commission, the European Union’s executive arm, has formed an informally announced group, sometimes colloquially referred to as the “Trump Task Force,” to spend much of 2024 responding to changes in U.S. trade and foreign policy. spent on possible responses.
But for companies and government officials, it’s difficult to know what’s a rumor, or bargaining chip, and what’s reality. And they learned from the first Trump administration that criticizing the American president too openly accomplishes little, attracting attention and potentially inviting retaliation.
So companies and governments alike are working carefully to curry favor with, or at least not anger, the world’s most powerful country’s mercurial president.
The European Commission is a good example. Task Force staff members spent 2024 studying possible detailed responses to the inauguration of a new American president. But in public, government officials have only expressed a willingness to negotiate on potential tariffs and other threats, vaguely warning that they could retaliate if necessary to protect their own interests. I am doing it.
Chairperson Ursula von der Leyen said: proposed daily After Mr. Trump’s election, there was widespread belief that Europe could buy more liquid natural gas from the United States. This is what Trump says Europe must do to avoid tariffs.
Trump: “One of the things they can do right now is buy our oil and gas.” repeatedly told reporters at the White House after the inauguration on Monday. “We’re going to solve this problem with tariffs, or they’ll have to buy our oil and gas.”
However, Ms von der Leyen often spoke only in general terms about how Europe would respond to trade restrictions.
“There’s a lot at stake for both sides,” he said in a speech at Davos on Tuesday, adding that “our number one priority” is negotiations.
“We are pragmatic, but we always stick to our principles,” she said. “We will protect our interests and protect our values.”
The task force had broad powers, but focused on tariffs, according to people familiar with the group’s activities. They requested anonymity to discuss private discussions.
European Commission spokesman Olof Gil acknowledged the group’s existence, but said it was active well before the actual election and throughout 2024, and was not officially called the “Trump Task Force.” He pointed out.
This group was led by Alejandro Cainsos. Experienced staff Has expertise in international relations. He declined to comment for this article.
One strategic reason for keeping the work relatively quiet is that Europe appears to be trying to keep its options open.
Jorn Fleck, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s European Center, said the European Union is more disciplined than it was during the first Trump administration and “isn’t caught up in a cycle of political reaction.”
“This is an important learning curve that the EU has experienced,” he noted.
Europe’s plans for potential trade disruptions also contrast with actions under the first Trump administration, Fleck said. At that time, Tariffs on steel and aluminum It surprised America’s allies across the Atlantic.
Still, any preparation may have its limits.
The situation in 2017 was “a much more limited threat,” said Ignacio García Bercero, a former official at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade and now at research group Bruegel. This time, instead of imposing one-off tariffs on specific industries, Trump threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs if he deemed it appropriate.
And Trump’s actions in his second term could span multiple policy areas, combining energy, trade and defense goals.
In response, European countries “need to be more creative,” Fleck said.
In some ways, Trump’s rise has hastened changes that were already coming. Ian Lesser, head of the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels office, said Trump’s comments could accelerate increased military spending in Europe, a change widely recognized as necessary. .
“The big questions he raises only reinforce existing concerns,” Lesser said.
Still, Trump could evolve European policy more rapidly.
On February 3, the European Council, made up of the leaders of the 27 EU countries, will meet for a meeting. Castle on the outskirts of Brussels We will discuss how to proceed with security issues, including issues such as financing and common procurement. Notably, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will be attending the event. first time The British Prime Minister has revealed that he has met with all members of the European Union (EU) since the country voted to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016.
This highlights the possibilities arising from all the impending uncertainties.
Many in Europe fear that Mr. Trump will cut alliances one by one by making deals with European countries one by one, but they also think that pressure could bring Europe and its partners closer together. It will be done.
“I think people will understand that there is strength in negotiating as a bloc,” Beata Javorczyk, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said in an interview at a cafe in Davos.
Ahead of his inauguration ceremony in Washington on Monday, French Prime Minister François Bayrou criticized the US for its “high-handed policy” stance. But even in the face of such circumstances, European countries should cooperate, he said.
“That’s for us, the French and the Europeans to decide,” Bairou told reporters in the southwestern French town of Pau, where he is still mayor. “Because obviously it’s impossible to do that without Europe.”
Aurelian Breeden, jenny gross and katherine porter Contributed to the report.
