With less than a month to go until the end of the extremely close presidential campaign between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Friday’s surprisingly positive jobs report reinforced optimism about the U.S. economy. Voters say the economy comes first..
Number of non-farm employees Employment increased by 254,000 people in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. These numbers beat expectations, with the Dow Jones Consensus expecting payrolls to increase by 150,000 for the month.
“It was a very strong report across all metrics,” said Aaron Sojourner, senior research fellow at the WE Upjohn Employment Research Institute. “Wage growth is strong. Working households are increasing their purchasing power.”
The good news comes in the final stages of a fierce election campaign in which the economy has been a major focus.
As they tour battleground states, Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump map out the face-off in the U.S. labor market.
“This terrible nightmare for American workers will end the day I take the oath of office,” President Trump said at a rally in Michigan on October 3.
In stark contrast, Harris said in an interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes” that aired Monday, “We now have an economy that is thriving by every macroeconomic measure.” Harris specifically cited America’s “historically low unemployment rates among people of all walks of life.”
Former U.S. president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Rider Health and Physical Education Center at Saginaw Valley State University on October 3, 2024 in Saginaw, Michigan.
Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images
The latest jobs report adds to a spate of good economic news in recent weeks, with indicators that could lead to the strongest economic rise in decades.
“I hesitate to say this at the risk of sounding hyperbolic,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, wrote in the X Post in September. “This is one of the strongest economies in my 35-plus years of experience as an economist.”
In September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years as inflation neared its 2% target, marking a major milestone in the U.S. economic recovery after the pandemic.
The consumer price index will reach a peak of 9.1% in 2022, the highest level in about 40 years. Since then, the CPI has cooled down significantly, falling to 2.5% in August compared to the same month last year.
As consumer prices have slumped, productivity has increased and the real gross domestic product It grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter. If that happens, Biden could record the highest average productivity increase since 2016. clinton administration.
“This is the expansion that economists were afraid to expect,” said Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. “But it’s happening and it’s amazing.”
The stock market has also been setting new records almost regularly over the past few months. In response to the explosion in employment statistics, Dow Jones Industrial Average Last week, it closed at a high of 42,352.75. of S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite This day’s meeting has also ended.
As a result, recession hawks have stopped stirring up fear. And some companies are raising their profit forecasts.
September 26th, Chip Manufacturer micron technology The company said it expects first-quarter sales of $8.7 billion, higher than analysts’ expectations of $8.3 billion. and cloud computing companies oracle has raised its own revenue outlook, now expecting revenue of $66 billion in fiscal 2026, $1.5 billion more than previously expected.
According to Wolfers’ analysis, the so-called misery index, which combines inflation and unemployment, is near its lowest level in any presidential cycle in the past 50 years.
A strong set of data undermines President Trump’s message to voters that the Biden-Harris administration has done this. destroyed the economysaid Teddy Goff, digital director for Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign.
“Everyone can see that the economy is booming,” Goff said.
Consumer sentiment rose for the second consecutive month in September, reaching its highest level since May, according to a new University of Michigan survey released on September 27th.
CNBC contacted the Trump campaign for this story, but national spokeswoman Caroline Levitt ignored questions about the positive economic news.
“Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are back to being broke,” Levitt said in a statement. “But President Trump has a plan to make America the world’s manufacturing powerhouse and protect American jobs here at home.”
But Stony Brook University professor Stephanie Kelton said it’s hard to imagine many voters wanting a better headline.
“When you turn on the radio or pick up a newspaper, you’re more likely to see positive news about the state of the economy,” Kelton says. “There is a change in the atmosphere.”
