washington –
Donald Trump smiles broadly in front of cheering supporters after millions of Americans cast their ballots in a stunning demonstration of America’s turn toward isolationism, protectionism and tariffs. In a dramatic reversal, he elected a divided Republican leader to be the next president of the United States.
“It’s clear now that we overcame obstacles that no one thought was possible and accomplished the most incredible political thing. Look what happened, this is crazy. ” President Trump said in Florida on November 6, appearing shocked by his victory in the key battleground state.
“But this is a political victory unlike anything our country has ever seen, and nothing can match it.”
Trump has not yet entered the White House, but his victory shocked the world. Less than a month after the election, President Trump revived his “Twitter diplomacy,” posting threats on social media to impose crippling 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
“I think the sense that Canada was a special friend and therefore protected has died,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canadian Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “It’s still special, but it’s not the bulletproof shield that we all thought it would be.”
Explosive political events in Ottawa this month have added to the uncertainty surrounding Canada-U.S. relations. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s sudden resignation has prompted calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down, with Trudeau reflecting on the move while on vacation.
As the world prepares for a second Trump administration, experts say there are lessons to be learned from the tumultuous and unforgiving 2024 campaign.
The path to the ballot box was long and chaotic. Remember the spring, when many Americans were dissatisfied with what they saw as a repeat of the 2020 election between President Trump and President Joe Biden, and did not engage with either party.
All that changed during the June 27 presidential debate. Secret concerns about the age and mental strength of the Democratic Party were on full display. Mr. Biden’s voice was hoarse, he stumbled over his words and lost his train of thought.
Questions swirled about whether Biden could remain in the race.
A few weeks later, a gunman opened fire at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania. Images that surfaced after the assassination attempt showed President Trump raising his fist in the air with the American flag in the background, blood streaming down the side of his face.
It was a watershed, contrasting with Trump’s strong rise against weakened Democratic opponents.
Shortly after, Biden bowed to pressure from his own party. He endorsed his second in command, Kamala Harris, who withdrew from the race on July 21.
The vice president moved quickly to shore up support, and her early campaign was based on ideas of “joy” and kitchen problems, using memes, celebrities, and coconuts. It reinvigorated the Democratic Party, but the excitement did not spread beyond the party’s base.
Harris continues to cling to the Biden administration’s legacy at the border, failing to win over voters worried about their pocketbooks during the 107-day campaign.
Mr. Trump capitalized on Americans’ fears about the economy and illegal immigration while promising cuts to federal spending. He promised significant tariffs and withdrawal from international organizations.
In his victory speech, President Trump said, “I govern by a simple motto: We deliver on our promises; we keep our promises. We keep our promises.”
Negative attitudes toward Trump also “disappeared this year,” Sands said.
“Even though it took a long time, there’s a recognition that he represents something real, and that’s why he’s gaining political support.”
Alasdair Roberts, a public policy professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said the US system of governance is undergoing a once-in-a-generation transformation. Ideas about what government should do are fundamentally changing.
It happened in the 1930s with former President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal program to help people recover from the Great Depression. Another change occurred in the 1980s under former President Ronald Reagan, introducing market-oriented policies.
President Trump was able to successfully ride the wave of discontent that began in 2007 with the global financial crisis. Gallup data shows that people have felt the country was heading in the wrong direction for at least two decades.
As a result, the United States was deeply divided.
Roberts said Canada needs to grapple with the fact that its closest neighbor and largest trading partner has been “unstable and unpredictable for years.” Gambling Canada’s future on the notion of a shared special relationship is a recipe for disaster, he added.
“We need to get our act together,” Roberts said.
That means more focused diplomacy, he said. The federal government’s Team Canada was in contact with American elected officials at all levels from both parties in the months leading up to the election, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with Canada more than 24 hours after Trump’s victory was confirmed. Reinstated the Cabinet Committee on American Relations.
Trudeau also flew to Mar-a-Lago last month for dinner with Republican leaders.
Sands said Canada is playing good defense, but Ottawa can’t “avoid bad things from happening.”
Ottawa must prove that Canada is a valuable partner. Sands said the U.S. will start looking elsewhere if Canada faces financial or regulatory constraints.
That could be difficult given the new threat to topple the Liberal government, Trudeau’s leadership in limbo, and the high likelihood of a change of government when Canadians go to the polls in 2025. There is sex.
He added that there was growing doubt among U.S. lawmakers during the Biden administration that Canada could actually help the United States.
For example, Sands said Canada talks a lot about critical minerals, but more can be done to provide much-needed resources. He noted that the U.S. Department of Defense is making significant investments in Canadian mines as part of the U.S.-Canada Joint Action Plan on Critical Minerals.
Canada can also be an active partner in artificial intelligence regulation and the Indo-Pacific.
“There’s a lot at stake right now,” Sands said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 27, 2024.
