Ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon hold for now, despite being tested to their limits over the weekend, as all sides want to avoid full-scale fighting for at least a few weeks, according to analysts There is a high possibility that it will be done.
In southern Lebanon, Israeli troops remained behind past a Sunday deadline amid Israel’s claims that Hezbollah has broken its own pledge to leave the area. In Gaza, Hamas failed to free a female hostage that Israel had hoped to release on Saturday, prompting Israel to delay the agreed return of Palestinians who had taken refuge in their homes in northern Gaza. did.
But even as each side accuses the other of refusing their deal, analysts say both Israel and its enemies have reason to remain flexible and temporarily overlook the other’s sins. he said.
Hezbollah was angry at Israel for keeping troops in southern Lebanon, but renewing its rocket strikes on Israeli cities would risk a devastating Israeli counterattack. Hamas wants to maintain power in Gaza and risks losing it if war returns. And Israel must maintain its current arrangements in Gaza long enough to free at least 20 hostages. Israeli leaders were also keen to appease President Trump, who campaigned on a promise to maintain peace in the Middle East.
Israel and Hamas appeared to have resolved the weekend crisis near midnight Sunday, as they indicated their desire to prolong the ceasefire in Gaza. The Qatari government, which is the mediator between the sides, said the female hostage, Abel Yehud, would be released this week, along with two others released ahead of schedule. In return, Israel said evacuated Palestinians could return to northern Gaza on Monday morning.
Regarding Lebanon, the white house announced The ceasefire there will be extended until February 18, but there was no immediate comment from Israel or Hezbollah. Lebanon’s Prime Minister’s Office confirmed the extension.
“They’re going to get through the next few weeks,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator at the Middle East Peace Conference.
“These are not agreements between the United States and Switzerland. They are agreements that rely on both sides and give the other side a certain amount of discretion and margin for maneuver,” he added. “It’s their weakness, but it’s also their strength.”
That squiggly room ultimately allowed both trans to survive the weekend, even as Israeli troops shot and killed people in both Lebanon and Gaza, who were trying to return to areas still controlled by Israel. .
Lebanon’s Health Ministry said 22 people were killed by Israeli fire in southern Lebanon, and Palestinian Authority news agencies said large crowds in both locations gathered near Israeli forces and demanded they go home. He said he was killed in Gaza.
But by Monday morning, the Gaza standoff appeared to be easily set up. In Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a statement praising residents who are trying to call on foreign forces to return to force Israel to leave. However, Hezbollah did not restart the rocket fire.
Analysts say Hezbollah is unlikely to risk further losses while its leadership is destroyed and its benefactor, Iran, is weakened. Also, the group’s main arms supply route through Syria was blocked in December when Hezbollah ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted by rebels.
“They still have some rockets, they still have some guns, they can do something,” Hezbollah commanders told the Washington Near East Policy Research Group, a Foreign Affairs research group. said Lebanese analyst Hanin Ghadar.
“But they do this because they know that any kind of attack by Israel’s Hezbollah means Israel takes the opportunity to take back a full blast and annihilate what is left of them.” is suicide,” Gadar added.
Hezbollah is also probably wary of losing support among its Shiite Muslim base, especially in next year’s parliamentary elections, Ghaddar said. Lebanon’s Shiite community paid the highest price for Hezbollah’s decision to go to war against Israel in solidarity with its ally Hamas in October 2023. Shiite villages and towns in southern Lebanon bore the brunt of Israel’s next air campaign and ground invasion.
“If Shiites don’t vote for them, this is the end of Hezbollah,” said Ghadar, author of a book on Hezbollah’s relationship with its bases. “They can’t really do anything unless they know 100% that the Shiite community supports it.”
The ceasefire in Gaza is considered the weakest of the two truths, as Hezbollah is unlikely to resume fighting.
But its biggest stress test is not expected until the beginning of March, when Hamas and Israel must decide whether to extend the deal beyond the initial 42-day truce.
For now, Israel wants to maintain a ceasefire to keep hostage releases flowing. But expansion requires both sides to agree on a permanent purpose for the war. It’s a bridge that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems loath to cross. Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition government relies on far-right lawmakers who want permanent Israeli control of Gaza, and his government is likely to collapse once the war ends if Hamas is still in charge.
The terms of the contract allow for some flexibility. The ceasefire can last beyond the 42-day mark as long as both sides continue to negotiate whether to make the arrangement permanent.
But Israeli officials say they will not remain locked in endless fruitless negotiations, especially if Hamas stops releasing the hostages. And Hamas is unlikely to continue releasing hostages, its main bargaining chip, without committing to a permanent cessation of Israeli hostilities.
“Hamas wants a cease-fire, but they are not making any sacrifices,” said Mukaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political scientist from Gaza. “They want a ceasefire to end the war.”
It could depend on President Trump’s willingness to cajole Mr. Netanyahu toward a more permanent ceasefire. Trump’s private message to the Israeli prime minister was essential to the early forging, but it remains unclear whether the American president will remain in office beyond a few weeks.
“If Netanyahu succeeds in convincing Trump of the need to renew the war, there will probably be a renewal of the war,” Abusada said. “If Trump is keeping his promise that he doesn’t want war and wants more peace, whether it’s in Gaza or Ukraine or around the world, that’s another thing.”
