An expert panel advising the federal government on climate policy says Canada should at least halve its carbon dioxide emissions by 2035.
The Net Zero Advisory Group has called on the government to go even further and cut climate-changing emissions by up to 55% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels.
The federal government’s current goal is to reduce emissions by up to 45% by 2030.
The advice comes as the federal government prepares to set new legally binding climate targets for 2035 under the country’s Net Zero Emissions Accountability Act. The new targets are due to be announced in December.
The advisory body said it considered setting the target as high as 60 percent but ultimately settled on a range of 50 to 55 percent.
In a report published today, the Net Zero Advisory Group said that scope is both technically and economically feasible.
The report also suggests the target would ensure Canada doesn’t fall too far behind other major economies such as the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom.
The UK’s 2035 emissions reduction target is 74 percent below 2005 levels.
The Net Zero Advisory Group says it developed its updated recommendations to reflect Canada’s obligations under the landmark 2015 international climate pact, the Paris Agreement.
The agreement says countries must limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and strive to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
While countries are making progress, the United Nations says the world is still on track to exceed limits set out in the Paris Agreement and cause more devastating floods, heat waves and wildfires.
Some of these impacts could be avoided if countries limited pollution from burning fossil fuels.
The Earth’s atmosphere acts like a blanket: Burning fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases, adding more layers to that blanket. Too many layers can cause the Earth to overheat.
Scientists know how much greenhouse gas humanity has emitted so far, and how much more we can emit before the Earth overheats.
Countries such as the UK, France and New Zealand have quantified the amount of greenhouse gases they can emit while still complying with the Paris Agreement.
Committee calls for ‘carbon budget’
Thursday’s report recommended Canada take similar measures by developing what’s known as a carbon budget.
“Similar to a household budget, a carbon budget helps ensure that you ‘only spend what you can afford’ by tracking the ‘cost’ of your emissions and allocating it based on the remaining greenhouse gas emissions in your budget,” the report said.
“Canada is one of the world’s largest emitters…” [and] “In terms of population, we’re not a big country,” said climate scientist Simon Donner, co-chair of the advisory panel.
“If you think about it that way, Canada has already used up a significant portion of its carbon budget.”
Canada is one of the world’s top 20 emitters, and together the two countries account for more than 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. According to the United Nations.
According to One hypothesisCanada will rank 12th in the world in absolute and per capita emissions in 2022, despite ranking 37th by population.
The report acknowledges that even with the proposed 2035 target, Canada will still be consuming more than its fair share of emissions under the carbon budget.
The report calls for additional measures to make up the shortfall, including carbon dioxide removal through tree planting and direct air capture technologies, which remove carbon from the atmosphere.
Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault declined to tell CBC News whether the government plans to adopt the climate targets proposed by the advisory body. Minister Guilbeault said the government is considering ambitious but realistic new climate goals as it develops new targets.
“I’m not a big fan of setting goals where you don’t know how to get there,” he said. “I think it’s counterproductive and it discourages people because they’re not going to get there.”
Modelling produced by Guilbeault’s ministry shows Canada is still on track to meet its 2026 climate targets, but not quite on track to meet its 2030 targets.
According to the latest modelling from Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canada could cut its emissions by 36 per cent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
A separate report from the climate advisory body said Canada could close the gap by putting additional measures in place and focusing on strengthening existing policies.
“We should build on what exists rather than tearing it down and starting from scratch because there will be time lag effects that will impact our ability to achieve our goals,” Donner said.
