Voters handed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau another crushing defeat in a by-election, this time choosing a Bloc Quebecois candidate in a Montreal district that has been dominated by the Liberal party for most of the last century.
The loss in LaSalle-Emard-Verdun was Trudeau’s second by-election defeat in a safe Liberal seat in the past three months, raising doubts about his long-term viability as party leader.
Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé narrowly defeated Liberal candidate Laura Palestini, a surprising upset given the ruling party’s historical strength in this southwestern Montreal region. NDP candidate Craig Sauvé came in third.
Voters began celebrating before the final votes were counted, with lawmakers singing “Gens du pays” to Louis-Philippe Sauvé.
It was one of the closest three-way races in recent history, with the leading candidates changing positions as the votes were counted and the final result not coming in until after 2:45 a.m. ET.
In the end, the Bloc’s Sauvé won 28% of the vote, Palestini 27.2% and the New Democrats 26.1% – the difference between the Bloc and Liberal candidates was just under 250 votes.
Ahead of the final results of the LaSalle-Emard-Verdun by-election, Liberal Party candidate Laura Palestini expressed her gratitude for the enthusiasm and support of those who worked on her campaign.
With other parties arguing with each other in the House of Representatives and creating an increasingly hostile atmosphere, the Bloc “showed itself to voters that it was the adult in the room,” said Bloc MP Christine Normandin of Sauvé’s victory party.
“We work for the people of Quebec. Voters here are telling us: ‘keep fighting for us’. They are sending a message to the government: the Bloc Party has the support of the people and will deliver more benefits for Quebecers,” she said.
Before Monday’s by-election, few constituencies in Quebec were safer for the federal Liberal Party than LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, and this defeat shows how far the party has fallen.
Ahead of the announcement of final results in Montreal’s LaSalle-Emard-Verdun by-election on Monday night, NDP candidate Craig Sauvé said his campaign has been a dream come true and thanked his supporters.
Former premier Paul Martin previously represented part of the district, but a non-Liberal candidate hasn’t won the seat since Quebec voters elected dozens of NDP members in the historic Orange wave of 2011.
In 2021, outgoing Liberal MP David Lametti beat his Bloc opponent in this constituency by about 20 percentage points. Palestini lost by less than one percentage point.
If similar vote swings apply to other Liberal constituencies in Quebec, more than a dozen MPs could lose their seats in the next election.
Ahead of the final results of the LaSalle-Emard-Verdun by-election on Sept. 16, Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez-Ferrada told CBC’s Sarah Leavitt that Justin Trudeau will lead the Liberal Party in the next election.
“I’m very proud of the campaign we ran,” said Tourism Minister Soraya Martínez Ferrada, who also represents the electoral district of Montreal.
“This is a good dry run for the general election, because it’s important because this is where voters are going to choose their next government,” she told CBC News before the final results were known.
Separatist Resurgence
The Bloc’s victory is the latest sign that separatist parties are enjoying a slight resurgence in Quebec after years of decline.
The Parti Québécois (PQ), the provincial party that essentially launched the modern Quebec independence movement and twice led the drive to secede from Canada, has seen its support rise as Premier François Legault’s Coalition for the Future of Quebec falters in its sixth year in power.
PQ Leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, campaigning in the Sauve constituency, praised the party’s work in Ottawa, a “hostile environment” where Quebecers are constantly on the defensive.
The Liberal defeat in Montreal comes just weeks after Conservative candidate Don Stewart defeated his Liberal opponent in the Toronto-St. Paul riding, which the party had held for more than three decades until his loss in June.
This month, the Liberal campaign chief resigned and the New Democrats tore up the supply and confidence agreement that had given the government leeway in a minority parliament.
Despite calls for him to step down following a tumultuous period, Trudeau has said he will remain prime minister no matter what and lead the Liberal party into the next federal election.
The prime minister says he cannot step down now because he does not want to ensure that Conservative leader Pierre Poiriévre wins and takes the country in a fundamentally different direction.
“I’m not going anywhere,” Trudeau said in an interview on Montreal radio station CJAD 800 on Saturday.
“I have to be at the forefront of fighting those who want to harm this country,” he said.
NDP wins in Winnipeg-area constituencies
Further west, NDP candidate Leila Dance won in Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona riding.
The result isn’t particularly shocking because this working-class community on the city’s east end has been represented by New Democrats for much of the past 45 years.
Elmwood-Transcona is one of the safest ridings for the NDP – only seven ridings nationwide were safer for the party in the last federal election, according to a CBC News analysis of voting data.
Ahead of the final results of the Elmwood-Transcona by-election in Winnipeg, New Democratic Party candidate Leila Dance thanked her team and family for their help and support during the election campaign.
But the margin of victory this time was narrower than in years past, indicating that while the NDP garnered enough votes to win again, the party’s brand took a hit.
Dance, a small business advocate, defeated the Conservative candidate, electrician Colin Reynolds, by about four percentage points – just a fraction of the vote that outgoing MP Daniel Blakey received in the constituency last time.
Dance told reporters he wants to focus on cost-of-living issues while in Ottawa.
“Before, you could buy a cart full of groceries for $100, and now you can get two small bags. This is going to affect everyone in this district,” she said.
Polls show the NDP is struggling to break through among voters even as support for its main progressive rival, the governing Liberal Party, is on a downward trend.
For now, the biggest beneficiary of the Liberal Party’s weakening is Mr Poirievre.
But despite optimism from his party’s MPs that the Conservatives would win because the New Democrats remained neutral nationally, Poirievre failed to secure a victory in Winnipeg.
Colin Reynolds, the Conservative candidate for the by-election in Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona riding, said the by-election result “was not what we expected.”
But the Conservatives are performing much better here than they did in the 2021 general election, suggesting that Poirievre’s popularity in the opinion polls is translating into some success at the ballot box.
The NDP victory could be interpreted as vindication of Singh’s decision to back out of an agreement to prop up a Liberal government just days before the by-election.
NDP ends agreement with Liberal Party
Singh argued for the dissolution to show voters he was not beholden to Trudeau.
The decision to withdraw from the agreement gave the party an opportunity to tell voters that a vote for the NDP is a vote for change.
Singh dumped the deal, saying the Liberals had no new ideas and were too soft on “corporate greed”.
Former Elmwood-Transcona NDP MP Daniel Blakey was asked whether NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s decision to terminate the supply and confidence agreement with the Liberal party had an impact on the contest in the Winnipeg East by-election.
The Liberal Party, meanwhile, has accused Singh of abandoning progressive policies that have yet to pass Parliament, such as his promised health insurance scheme.
Singh also said he wanted to withdraw the government’s past support for a carbon tax and propose an alternative that would be less costly for consumers. Trudeau said Monday that Singh was bowing to Conservative criticism.
Liberal vote plummets in Winnipeg
The Liberal vote in the Elmwood-Transcona constituency has fallen sharply.
Liberal standard-bearer Ian McIntyre is on track to record one of the worst by-election results for a governing party candidate in Canadian history.
The party was not expected to be competitive in the 2021 general election, with it coming in a distant third and opinion polls showing the Liberal Party as significantly less popular than it was then.
However, Liberal Party candidates received less than 5% of the vote, down about 10 percentage points from the previous election, meaning that voter turnout was still significantly lower.
