Analysts say Europe could fill Ukraine’s funding gap if US withdraws

After the election of Donald Trump and Republican control of both houses of Congress, the risk of the US cutting funding to Ukraine has become a real possibility, and what that means for the ongoing conflict. It has caused concern among European leaders.

President Trump has previously vowed to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, joining hardline Republicans in April who nearly blocked a critical aid package from providing funding to the war-torn country. has been loudly criticized. On Sunday, President Trump said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Ukraine would “probably” receive less military aid after taking office.

But experts who spoke to CNBC said there is reason to believe that Europe, Ukraine’s biggest donor, could make up the gap if the U.S. withdraws or ramps up funding.

Ukraine relies on military and financial assistance from international partners, particularly the United States and Europe, to sustain military operations.

According to Kiel Economic Research Institute’s Ukraine Support Trackertracks funding to Ukraine from January 2022 to October 2024, with Europe pledging 241 billion euros ($255 billion) in aid and the United States pledging 119 billion euros. Of this amount, Europe has so far allocated 125 billion euros and the United States 88 billion euros.

Pietro Bonprezzi, project leader for the Ukraine Support Tracker, told CNBC that both Europe and the United States are providing “comparable levels of military assistance.”

Europe, Ukraine’s biggest donor and neighbor, will bear the brunt of the cost if U.S. aid dries up and is not renewed under the Trump administration. In the Tracker’s latest press update released last week, Ukraine Support Tracker Director Christophe Trevesh said, “With current funding scheduled to end, all eyes are now on the incoming U.S. administration. “We are paying attention to their willingness to assist Ukraine.”

European leaders have met several times since the election to shore up support for Ukraine, with many countries doubling down on their commitments.

Germany, Europe’s biggest donor to Ukraine, has reiterated its support for the country, pledging more military aid during a visit to Kiev last week, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saying “Ukraine can trust Germany.” Ta.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has repeatedly blocked EU funding to Ukraine, struck a different tone last month, saying: If the US withdraws aid, Europe will not be able to bridge the financial gap.

But analysts who spoke to CNBC say Europe can close the gap, and there are several ways to do so.

in Latest update is December 5ththe Ukraine Support Tracker said that leveraging profits from frozen Russian assets, which are “primarily available to European funders,” could “make up for losses in U.S. funds in the future.” .

Jacob Funk Kierkegaard, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, told CNBC that measures such as new common debt and bilateral donations could be used to “supplement U.S. financial aid to Ukraine. would be very easy for the EU.” 250 billion euros in frozen Russian assets were seized and distributed to Ukraine.

Nigel Gould-Davies, senior Russia and Eurasia fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the seizure and distribution of frozen Russian assets would be a “game changer”. on the other hand, G7 $50 billion loan with interest payments from Russian assets This is a small step in this direction, but the EU can do much more as it has full control over these assets.

“All at once, if [the G7] If they were willing to do so, they could provide the invaders with large sums of money and use them to defend Ukraine,” Gould-Davis said. There are also economic implications, he added.

There are also other ways Europe can close the gap. Mr. Kierkegaard referred to the Danish model for financing Ukraine. In other words, countries could directly finance Ukraine’s military-industrial complex in exchange for sending Western-made weapons, which are more expensive to produce.

Kierkegaard points out that even if important U.S. weapons are withdrawn, they can still be purchased. European countries could agree to trade deals and agree to buy American products, in this case weapons, as China did in 2018. Supply to Ukraine in exchange for tariff relief.

Gould-Davies said how much effort Europe spends defending itself and Ukraine is “an entirely political choice.”

He frames it as a balance of resources and a balance of determination. The balance of resources is in Europe’s favor, but the balance of determination is in Russia’s favor. Ukraine’s defense is possible if Europe has the political will to take advantage of its resource advantages. It will be significantly strengthened.

Max Bergman, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC that European countries would likely increase aid if the U.S. withdrew, but that “Ukraine is likely to It is unclear whether we will be able to overcome the gap between them.” The withdrawal of US aid and the increase in European defense production. ”

Ukraine will lose the war if Europe does not step up support if the US withdraws: “The danger is that we will see the same thing in Kiev in 2026 as we saw in Kabul in 2021.” – A military collapse will occur and the end of Ukraine and Ukrainian democracy.”

Correction: This article has been updated to correct the spelling of Nigel Gould-Davies and Max Bergmann’s names.