Senior figures in and around the Liberal Party are weighing whether to enter the race to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but it remains unclear whether newcomers can breathe new life into the party’s electoral chances.
After weeks of growing calls for him to resign, Prime Minister Trudeau announced Monday that he would resign as soon as his party chooses a successor.
The Governor-General also agreed to his request to prorogue Parliament until 24 March. Prime Minister Trudeau’s party has 76 days left to begin its leadership campaign, allowing it to prepare for an almost certain spring election despite trailing the Conservatives by more than 20 points. Public opinion poll.
Dan Arnold, chief strategist at Pollara, who previously worked as Trudeau’s pollster, said it was a daunting task and not enough to energize the party’s sluggish fortunes. He said it might be possible.
“Liberals, they have a big hole they have to climb out of right now. And now, with Prime Minister Trudeau stepping down, he’s kind of given the Liberals a rope and a chance to get out of that hole. I think so,” Arnold said.
“But 10 years later, people still want change.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced that he will step down as prime minister and Liberal Party leader after the party selects a replacement. Prime Minister Trudeau also said Governor-General Mary Simon had granted a request to prorogue parliament until March 24.
Shachi Karl, director of the Angus Reid Institute, said Canadians are tired of Trudeau, but removing him won’t solve the Liberals’ problems with voters.
“Prime Minister Trudeau defined the Liberal Party for over a decade…Certainly that person is gone, but what remains is truly a legacy,” she said.
“There are still concerns about the Canadian provincial health care system, particularly access to primary health care. There are still concerns about immigration, and people are still quite divided about paying the carbon tax.”
Leadership race is a chance to generate buzz: polling agency
Karlene Varyan, a vice president at Summa Strategies and a longtime Liberal Party adviser, takes a more optimistic view.
“Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation firmly turns the page on a new chapter for the party, allowing it to move into the future unhindered,” she said.
“It is also a tremendous challenge in the sense that rebuilding under new leadership means shaping a new, entirely new campaign, staff and infrastructure around new people, but Someone who doesn’t even know who we are yet.”
It is not yet clear when and how the party will choose that person. No rules or dates governing the leadership process have been announced.
Arnold said that there is a possibility that voters will take a fresh look at the struggling parties in the leadership race and create a buzz.
“If people are paying attention to the leadership race, that’s better than the daily reports about how the Liberals are doing in the polls and how everyone wants Prime Minister Justin Trudeau out of office. I think so,” he said.
“However, there is no guarantee that this will improve the situation for the Liberal Party. It is not a magic pill that will suddenly make the Liberal Party the leading party.”
On Monday, former central bank governor Mark Carney said he was considering running to replace Prime Minister Trudeau. Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne also said he was seriously considering the bid. Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson and businessman and former Liberal MP Frank Bayliss have also announced their intention to run.
Other ministers are also rumored to be interested, including Chrystia Freeland, Dominic LeBlanc, Mélanie Joly and Anita Anand. Former British Columbia premier Christie Clark said she would like to “participate in discussions about the future direction of the Liberal Party.”
Arnold said polls show the average Canadian cannot nominate a cabinet minister, and the majority of those lining up to run will have to fight for visibility outside of Ottawa. He said that it means that.
“Unless Ryan Reynolds runs for the Liberal Party tomorrow, I don’t think anyone with that level of name recognition and appeal to begin with is going to turn things around,” he said.
Excitement and buzz don’t guarantee votes either.
Arnold pointed to U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, who is expected to reinvigorate the Democratic Party after taking over from President Joe Biden in the final stages of the 2024 campaign.
“That’s what the Liberal Party is trying to do now,” he said.
“The polls are getting excited and everyone is talking about how this is going to be a game changer, but over time that popularity slowly wanes, and we found out in November. ”
Trudeau’s successor risks becoming the shortest-serving prime minister
There are moments in history that liberals probably don’t want to look back on.
After Trudeau’s father, Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, resigned after taking his famous walk in the snow, John Turner was elevated to the position and secured leadership of the Liberal Party, becoming Canada’s 17th president in June 1984. He became Prime Minister.
However, his stay at 24 Sussex did not last long.
Turner’s party was plagued by years of scandal and faced Canadian voters demanding change.
In September 1984, the Liberal Party suffered a landslide defeat to the Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Mulroney. The House of Representatives was reduced to just 40 seats.
Mr. Turner led Canada for 79 days, the second-shortest tenure of any prime minister, an undesirable record that could be broken by Justin Trudeau’s successor.
Kahl said some state leaders have been able to “pull a rabbit out of a hat” after taking over, but their fate is not playing out on the federal scene.
She pointed to Clark, who succeeded Gordon Campbell as BC Premier in 2011 after running for BC Liberal Party leadership. Although she lost her own seat, it was an unexpected victory for her party.
In Ontario, Kathleen Wynne replaced Dalton McGuinty as premier and leader of the provincial Liberal Party, leading the party to a majority government in 2014.
Conservative House of Commons Leader Andrew Scheer was asked by reporters how Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation will affect the Conservative Party’s election strategy. Scheer added that the Liberal leadership election does not change what the Liberal Party is offering in terms of policy.
Conservative House of Commons Leader Andrew Scheer said Tuesday his party will strive to paint the next Liberal leader in the same light as Trudeau.
“Canadians aren’t tired of seeing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s face. They’re not tired of hearing his voice. They’re suffering under his policies,” he told reporters. Ta.
“Regardless of when the election is held or who leads the party, we will remind Canadians of that horrific legacy.”
As a result, ministers are likely to be on the defensive, Karl said.
“They’re going to have to go through the trouble of explaining how they’re different after all these years in a tent,” she says.
“It’s the same problem Kamala Harris had.”
That’s why some Liberals with leadership aspirations may sit on the sidelines this round and wait for the political weathervane to tilt in a different direction, Arnold said.
“Even though after this campaign they will nominally become prime minister, it is almost the same as running for opposition,” he said.
“They may think that an election cycle in the next few years will be favorable to them, as there is a prevailing mood of ‘time for change’ for the Conservative government.”
