Longtime former civil servant Michael Wernick is listening to the Parti Quebecois’ promise to hold a third referendum on independence if it wins power in the next election.
He believes the same is true in Russia.
“This is an opportunity to disrupt and potentially divide important G7 countries so there is no doubt they will try,” the former Privy Council Secretary said.
“It’s 32 years since the last referendum. This time it will be fought on social media. We will be subject to cyber attacks. We will be the target of disinformation campaigns. It will be a lot like the 2016 Brexit referendum, only worse.”
While the threat of foreign interference in Canadian federal politics has attracted international attention and sparked ongoing public investigations, it is not the only target.
Canada’s intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned about foreign interference at the provincial level, and the parliamentary committee on national security and intelligence has also cited provincial interference as a concern, naming China and Pakistan as aggressors.
But there’s concern about whether provinces and territories will be able to respond to growing threats from foreign and domestic forces, said Wernick, now a professor of public sector management at the University of Ottawa.
“Election commissions and officials are often very small organizations that are reconstituted every four years and do not have the capacity to continually address new threats from cybersecurity and disinformation campaigns,” he said.
“I think with most threats, people are innocent and indifferent until something happens.”
That capability will be in focus later this fall when voters in three provinces – British Columbia, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick – head to the polls.
Foreign interference is a major threat in Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and British Columbia as elections approach, and while Canadian intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned about the risk, the provinces may not be prepared.
Laws vary from country to country
Saskatchewan’s chief electoral officer, Michael Boda, said one of his most important jobs this fall is to maintain trust in the electoral system, given the rise of deepfakes and how quickly misinformation spreads.
“We need to remain vigilant,” he said in a recent interview.
Boda has pushed for greater powers to combat disinformation, but without much success.
“From a legislative standpoint in Saskatchewan, our powers are very limited,” he said.
After the last state elections, Boda made a series of recommendations to reform the law. Give his office more power to combat disinformation that undermines the legitimacy of elections.
If those bills had been passed, Boda would have been empowered to work with social media companies to remove false information, such as that polling places had been moved during elections. He also called for new rules to prohibit deliberate misrepresentation of political parties, candidates or one’s own office.
“I don’t have that, so instead I’m going to go back to best practices and have an impact. I can be transparent about the situation as it unfolds and I will do so as I monitor the situation as it unfolds in the election process,” he said.
“We cannot take for granted the democratic traditions that we have enjoyed thus far.”
The premier of neighbouring British Columbia is dealing with a similar, though seemingly different, threat.
The provincial government has given the BC Elections Commission new powers to combat disinformation, including lies about the electoral process itself.
BC has new removal powers
British Columbia’s chief electoral officer, Anton Borgmann, said the reforms were “a very good thing for our democracy” in the face of growing polarization and threats of foreign interference.
“I think these are really dangerous,” he said. “These activities could undermine confidence in our elections and our democratic institutions and even stifle voter participation, and that’s my concern.”
For the first time in British Columbia, it will be illegal to make false statements about the electoral process, including false information about voting eligibility, dates, times or locations.
“Because the B.C. election is on a Saturday, there’s been some misinformation floating around that, for example, voting will take place on Monday,” Borgman said.
During this fall’s elections, it will also be illegal to make false statements or spread lies about a candidate having dropped out or having a criminal record.
Borgman believes two other changes to B.C.’s elections act could make the biggest difference this year: new restrictions on the unauthorized transmission of information or misrepresentation by election officials or political participants.
“Deepfake audio, video, images etc will be restricted during elections,” he said, noting that parody and satire would be exceptions.
Borgman’s office also has the authority to expedite matters and impose significant fines.
“Because the time frame for an election campaign is so short and because this misinformation can be damaging, we reserve the right to tell platforms and individuals posting content to stop posting it,” he said.
Social media platforms must comply with the suspension notice as soon as possible, but no later than 24 hours after receiving it from election officials, or face fines of up to $50,000 per day.
Borgman said he expects other states and the federal government will be watching closely.
“We’re leading the way on this and I think other electoral administrations in Canada are eager to see how our election goes and how effective these tools have been,” he said.
On the other side of the country, the New Brunswick Elections Commission announced it will launch a campaign next month to educate voters about the election process and misinformation.
A spokesperson said the company was working with the Canadian Cyber Security Centre to monitor any threats through Oct. 21 and was training staff internally on disinformation and deepfakes.
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service says it is working with B.C.’s Special Task Force on Election Integrity to mitigate potential threats.
In the spring, the federal government passed Bill C-70, which allows CSIS to share classified information outside the federal government.
“CSIS is committed to helping elected officials identify threats of foreign interference and take steps to ensure their personal safety, including through briefings,” said John Townsend.
He said this means officials can brief New Brunswick and Saskatchewan if necessary.
Canadians are also behind the disinformation
Angus Bridgeman, director of the Media Ecosystem Observatory, and his team monitor social media platforms for misinformation, polarization and foreign interference. They monitor the conversation around the BC election, examine how misinformation influences the conversation during the election, and report any incidents.
He said it was true that foreign powers produced and spread false information, but stressed that this was “the exception, not the rule.”
“This rule is actually Canadian and it targets chronic online influencers and entities who share and disseminate misleading or completely false information,” he said. “They likely do so for financial incentives, influence, attention and online space.”
Bridgeman said the bar to joining a disinformation bot campaign is relatively low and can be set up relatively quickly.
“The scope and scale of these attacks, and how quickly some of them can be deployed and how difficult they are to detect, means no one can prepare for this,” he said.
Bridgeman wants Parliament to pass Bill C-65, which includes provisions on election interference, including artificial intelligence, and also calls for social media platforms to “act responsibly” and make data more accessible to researchers.
Warnick believes protecting the integrity of state elections should be a priority for the Federal Council, made up of all 13 state premiers.
For starters, provinces and territories could amend their current laws to at least meet B.C.’s standards and also audit their cyber infrastructure, he said.
He also said he would like to see some sort of mutual aid agreement in which states that don’t hold elections would send aid to states that do to bolster their capacity, “kind of like the agreements we already have for emergency management and wildfires.”
“There’s no excuse to wait.”
