After more than 15 months of nearly uninterrupted fighting in the Gaza Strip, diplomats trying to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas expressed cautious hope Tuesday that a deal may finally be within reach. .
But that optimism has been tempered by uncertainty over whether the two sides will ultimately reach an agreement, the details still subject to change, and the experience of the past few months in which ceasefire talks have repeatedly broken down. It was done.
“We believe we are in the final stages, but there will be no announcement until there is an announcement,” Majid al-Ansari, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of Qatar, one of the mediating countries, told reporters on Tuesday.
Here’s what we know about a possible ceasefire agreement.
What is the status of negotiations?
U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Tuesday that Israel and Hamas have “agreed to a deal to suspend fighting in the Gaza Strip and release hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.” We are on the brink of doing so.”
He and diplomats from other mediating countries, including Qatar and Egypt, have been unable to reach a breakthrough in talks for months, but progress has been rapid in recent weeks.
Al-Ansari said the mediators “succeeded in minimizing the many disagreements between the parties,” adding that they were focused on “the final details to reach an agreement.” .
“On Sunday, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt submitted their final proposals,” Blinken said. “The ball is now in Hamas’ court.”
Officials from both the Israeli government and Hamas have indicated they are willing to move forward if the other side agrees.
Hamas officials said on Monday that an agreement within days was possible unless Israel abruptly changed its position. Israeli officials said on Tuesday that Israel was ready to conclude a deal and was awaiting Hamas’ decision.
Hamas officials negotiating in Qatar will need to get consent from Hamas’ remaining military commanders in Gaza for any deal. Those commanders include Mohammad Sinwar, whose brother led the group until he was killed by Israel in September. They must keep their location secret, which can make communication difficult and cause delays.
It is not yet clear whether Mr. Sinwar has informed Hamas leaders in Qatar of his position on the ceasefire proposal.
What does the proposal say?
Given the delicate nature of the ongoing negotiations, officials are cautious about describing the deal except in broad terms.
A diplomat familiar with the negotiations, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the volatile negotiations, said the framework of the agreement was heavily influenced by previous proposals discussed in May and July. The proposals detail a three-phase ceasefire in which Israeli forces would gradually withdraw from Gaza while Hamas would release hostages in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel.
Israeli authorities hope to secure the release of at least some of the approximately 100 hostages held in Gaza since the Hamas-led offensive in southern Israel in October 2023 that sparked the war. Israeli authorities estimate that about 35 of the remaining hostages have died.
Hamas leaders want to end Israeli military operations, secure the entry of materials for reconstruction, and win the freedom of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
During the first phase of the proposed ceasefire, which would last about six weeks, Hamas plans to release 33 named hostages, of whom Israel believes most are alive, Israeli officials said. spoke. said an Israeli official who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks. The official said Israel was willing to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange, but that number would depend on how many of the hostages survived.
Why have negotiations progressed so rapidly in recent weeks?
Some officials have suggested that the change of government in the United States, scheduled for January 20, has put pressure on Israel and Hamas to accelerate decision-making after months of delays.
President-elect Donald J. Trump has warned that if the hostages are not released by the time he takes office, he will “pay a price in hell.” His Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, also visited Qatar and Israel.
The talks also gained momentum after Israel reached a separate ceasefire agreement with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which began firing rockets at Israel shortly after the Hamas-led offensive in October 2023. . Hezbollah, which has been badly hit by the escalating conflict with Israel, agreed to the deal. A ceasefire with Israel was agreed in November, contributing to the isolation of Hamas.
