When mysterious drones started appearing above oil rigs and wind farms off the coast of Norway about three years ago, authorities weren’t sure where they were coming from.
But “we knew what they were doing,” Stahle Ulriksen, a researcher at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, said in a recent interview. “Part of it is espionage, and they plan a lot of things. I think part of it was positioning for war or serious crisis.”
Ulrichsen said the drones were suspected to have been launched from Russian-controlled vessels in the North Sea, including one near an undersea energy pipeline. He added that given that they were flying in international waters, Norway could not have done much to stop them.
Concerns about hybrid warfare have gained widespread attention in recent weeks with reports of swarms of drones over the U.S. East Coast. Of the 5,000 drone sightings in the area, only 100 require further investigation, and so far none are believed to be foreign surveillance drones, U.S. officials said. But the drones spotted over U.S. military bases in late November and early December are a different story. england and Germany, where American troops are stationed.
Military analysts have concluded that the drones may have been on a state-sponsored surveillance mission, said a U.S. official familiar with the incident who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the public investigation. . British and German defense officials declined to provide details of the sighting.
Experts say the presence of drones is indicative of so-called hybrid or “gray zone” attacks against Western countries, using military, cyber, economic, and even psychological attacks to covertly attack or destabilize enemies. He said a wide range of tactics will be used.
Defense officials face a difficult challenge as Russia, Iran and other adversaries become increasingly brazen with hybrid attacks against Western countries, including hacking of sensitive computer systems and alleged assassination plots. How can we stop such actions without provoking wider and more deadly conflict? And if attacks are planned to avoid responsibility, how can we hold the attackers accountable? Will I inflict it?
“It’s not random. It’s part of a military operation.”
Hybrid attacks are not new, but they have escalated in recent years.
One of the most visible and potentially deadly incidents occurred in July when a series of packages exploded in Europe. With Lithuanian postmark, Inside the luggage was an electric massager containing a highly flammable magnesium-based substance. Two explosions occurred at DHL cargo facilities in the UK and Germany, and a third at a courier company in Poland.
Western officials and Polish investigator Officials said they believed the package was a test run by Russian military intelligence to plant explosives on cargo planes bound for the United States and Canada.
“We are telling our allies that it is not random. It is part of a military operation,” said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budris. said The explosion. “We need to neutralize it and stop it at the source. The source is Russian military intelligence.” Russia denies being behind the sabotage.
Other examples of hybrid tactics include the past few years’ cyberattacks on Albania, which a Microsoft investigation concluded were backed by Iran, and Russia’s failed attempt to use disinformation to sway a presidential election. Examples include attempts. in moldova According to Moldovan and European officials, in October and November. European countries are also investigating whether a number of ships have intentionally severed undersea cables in attempted attacks in recent months.
China, Iran and North Korea have increased appetite for hybrid attacks, but officials say Russia in particular has been deploying hybrid attacks as covert sabotage efforts against NATO allies since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. said.
“Russia is ramping up its military operations across the board, and as a result, it has reached a level of concern,” James Apasulai, the NATO assistant secretary-general who oversees hybrid warfare strategy, said in an interview. “They are willing to accept additional risks to the safety of our lives, the lives of our people.”
The Baltic and Nordic states, which border Britain, Germany, the United States and Russia, are among the Western countries most targeted by hybrid threats, in part due to their prominent support for Ukraine, officials said. said. Last year, Western officials said, U.S. and NATO intelligence agencies suspected Russia of killing the chief executive of German weapons giant Rheinmetall, which had produced millions of dollars worth of arms and ammunition for Ukraine. exposed the conspiracy.
A drone discovered in the UK in November, three days after President Biden said Ukraine could launch a US-made deep-strike missile at Russia, is more likely to be owned by an enthusiast than expected. Large and resistant to harsh weather conditions, most were found after sunset. That’s part of the reason military analysts concluded a hostile nation was responsible, U.S. officials said.
Then, in early December, when reports of drone sightings in the UK began to decline, a drone appeared over Germany’s Ramstein Air Base, one of the largest US military bases in Europe. Some were also reportedly seen near facilities owned by Rheinmetall.
Investigators are considering whether the flights in both countries were “deviating from the Kremlin’s strategy,” a U.S. official said.
Although Russia has repeatedly denied carrying out hybrid attacks against NATO and often scoffed at the accusations, NATO officials say Russia has set up a special directorate focused on carrying out hybrid attacks. states.
Russian officials also say they are being targeted. “What is happening in Ukraine is what some people call a hybrid war,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei V. Lavrov said. said in an interview With Tucker Carlson in early December. “I also call it hybrid warfare.”
How to fight the shadow war.
NATO has begun developing a new strategy to counter hybrid attacks, replacing a 2015 policy it says is now outdated. Appasurai said this new approach provides a baseline picture of recent hybrid attacks and will help the alliance gauge whether the risk level is increasing.
“It will be important for our allies to determine how serious the incident is and what their response will be,” he said.
The European Union has also stepped up its efforts, imposing sanctions in mid-December. first time To those specifically accused of involvement in pro-Russian hybrid threats. It also recently tasked four senior members with the task of countering hybrid threats.
Government officials and experts agree that a wide range of measures are needed to deter and protect against hybrid attacks, including further “naming and shaming” of adversaries and the imposition of legal penalties. Improve intelligence and technical systems to monitor threats. and military exercises and other displays of force to demonstrate that even covert aggression will go unpunished.
But this will require unity among NATO members, especially if the attack crosses borders. And because hybrid warfare, by its very nature, is designed to avoid clear attribution of responsibility, officials are reluctant to mount a forceful response unless they have incontrovertible evidence of the enemy’s identity. I have hesitated.
Officials, diplomats and experts say this is giving Russia and China the momentum to push the envelope.
Charlie Edwards, a former British intelligence and security strategist, said: “Europe will remain vulnerable as long as NATO and European member states disagree on how to respond more aggressively to the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare.” said. Written in November. “Inaction means the Kremlin maintains its strategic advantage.”
