To understand how huge the Alberta NDP’s debt is to Rachel Notley, consider this.
The best election results were for the three parties she led, which won a combined 116 seats in those races. In the previous 12 elections, the NDP won 51 times.
This is fewer than the number of MLAs elected under Ms Notley’s banner in 2015 alone that made her premier.
She transformed a team that was comfortable riding in a sedan, sometimes on a bike, sometimes behind the wheel, into a team that filled government cabinet rooms. She admits that it was a disappointment to her own expectations.
But in the two races since his victory, Notley was unable to get NDP back to the top of the mountain against UCP leaders Jason Kenney and Daniel Smith.
Any amount rhetoric of comfort Something like, “The biggest opposition party in Alberta’s history!” This would erase the fact of her defeat in her ranks and her disappointment with it. She cited her failure to win again as the main reason for stepping down from her leadership position once her successor is chosen (possibly in late 2024).
new new democratic party
But in some ways, that bitterness speaks to the success of what Notley has built.A political party that has long been content with a two-person caucus or four MLAs had developed a new expectation during the Notley years: the expectation of winning.
In fact, she said in Tuesday’s announcement that establishing the NDP as a strong, victory-oriented force in Alberta is perhaps her greatest accomplishment, and that she is willing to take the party’s leadership seat to fight again in 2023 after being ousted in 2019. He said that this was the reason why he continued to stay there.
“Too many people were declaring that the Alberta NDP was dead and, more importantly, that Alberta was destined to return to a one-party conservative province,” she told reporters. Ta. “And I knew that wasn’t true.”
This will also be true in the coming weeks and months as the battle to replace Mr. Notley bubbles beneath the surface. The party’s next leader will face expectations that victory is within reach.
Candidates will be running not only to become premier but also to become NDP leader in order to win this internal party election, with an eye on winning the next local election.
In recent months, the contours of the New Democratic Party’s leadership contest have become clearer as Notley announced his intention to resign and waited for candidates to move from quiet organizing to active campaigning. Ta.
Last week, likely winner Kathleen Ganley chose to announce ahead of Notley’s announcement. leadership style videos That may have accelerated the former prime minister’s timing. Notley’s declaration to her caucus and all staff on Tuesday was made via a hastily organized virtual Zoom meeting ahead of a rally scheduled for next week, followed by a press conference with her family in Edmonton.
Ganley, a former Calgary MLA and former justice minister, will be seen as a front-runner, along with two Edmonton MLAs, former deputy premier Sarah Hoffman and second-term councilor Rakhi Pancholi.
There is no clear early favorite in this race, and there are no rules or timelines leading up to the Jan. 27 NDP provincial meeting. Although no one can officially declare it until after that, the perceived fairness of this contest is questionable. Members of Mr. Notley’s own staff and inner circle have joined the campaign teams of each of the three major leadership candidates.
Mr. Notley himself said he intended to remain neutral until a successor is chosen. But as a leader who has sought to expand the NDP beyond its union membership and Edmonton progressive base, she hopes future discussions about the party’s future will be similarly expansive.
“What’s important to me is whether we’re listening to all Albertans.” Outgoing leader ignores questions about how centrist Alberta’s NDP should be he said. “Do we represent the hopes and aspirations of the greatest number of Albertans?”
The leadership race may raise questions about the extent to which the party is branching out into new ideological territory or straying from traditional NDP values. Expect questions about what Calgary wants and what smaller communities in Alberta want to grow as well.
WATCH | Rachel Notley emotionally describes her decision:
Official Opposition Leader Rachel Notley said she would remain leader until the party organized a leadership election and MPs chose a replacement.
But none of the three interim top candidates appear to have strayed too far from Mr. Notley’s own general politics, in a state whose political axis is more conservative, more pro-economic and more pro-pro. , no candidate is likely to push the party back toward a more clearly progressive position. -It is richer in oil than the rest of Canada, and its province’s NDP often disagrees with the federal government and other provincial branches.
Hoffman, one of three candidates with roots in the NDP era before Notley, said online that he was proud to work with Notley “to live social democratic values.” I wrote this. But in her eulogy for the departing leader, she declared she wanted another party to win.
“Our common challenge as New Democrats is to build on her historic success and return to power in the next election,” she said. posted online.
Notley and her supporters reflected on her achievements during her first term as prime minister. A $15 minimum wage, a climate change strategy that accelerated the phase-out of coal-fired power generation and the expansion of wind and solar power, and the Calgary Cancer Center. Trans Mountain pipeline expansion — Two projects that UCP’s Smith will cut the ribbon on.
But many Albertans remember her as the premier who presided over the presidential campaign. severe recession It was too supportive of the government, introducing a widely hated state carbon tax due to low oil prices. Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeaua very unpopular figure in Alberta.
Despite this, most polls outperform both 2019 and 2023 The election showed Notley had a higher favorability rating than his UCP rivals Kenney and Smith.
However, this party brand twice ended its hopes of re-election.Outside of Calgary and Edmonton, the current leader’s brand and her party’s brand are both proved to be a debt.
Watch | Rachel Notley talks about her future:
Rachel Notley is stepping down as Alberta’s NDP leader after nearly a decade in the role. It was under her leadership that the NDP formed Alberta’s first-ever government. It’s her “time to let other people shine,” Notley told Power & Politics while commenting on her state’s future after her resignation.
Will a shake-up of the party help erase the bitter memories of the past if the new leader is less tied to Trudeau and the recession of the past decade? Part of that may depend on what kind of vision Mr. Notley’s successor is able to project. Part of that will depend on how effectively the UCP and Smith can lure the next leader back to a frustrating past.
The UCP will be as wary of a return to the NDP’s winning ways as those walking in Notley’s shadow might expect.
Mr. Notley planted an unlikely dream in the heart of a struggling party and watched it bloom and then wither. After Notley and her instilling in Alberta’s New Democratic Party her desire to keep the province a two-party system, her next leadership job could be make-or-break.
